***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 29.0 29.0 29.0 0.4 55.7 56.1 27.7 28.7 29.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 28.6 28.8 29.4 0.6 58.6 58.4 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 28.6 28.6 29.1 0.2 53.3 54.1 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 22.1 21.4 25.8 -0.1 48.3 49.0 20.0 21.5 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 29.5 28.3 26.4 -0.7 40.2 42.3 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 25.4 25.4 22.8 -1.5 25.8 29.8 26.1 27.5 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 28.4 28.6 29.3 0.6 58.1 57.9 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 14.9 15.2 23.5 -1.3 31.1 33.8 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 28.9 28.4 27.8 -0.1 48.4 49.7 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 28.9 27.4 25.0 -0.9 38.1 40.1 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 29.1 27.7 26.5 -0.9 37.9 40.3 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 26.2 26.5 24.9 -1.1 34.5 37.2 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 26.8 27.0 25.2 -1.4 28.9 32.7 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 28.2 27.7 27.1 -0.3 45.7 47.2 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 30.1 29.6 28.4 0.0 50.4 50.7 28.2 29.6 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 27.7 28.3 25.7 -1.0 35.3 38.3 28.0 29.5 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 27.9 28.2 29.1 0.7 59.9 59.2 26.4 27.5 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 25.9 26.1 23.8 -1.3 33.0 35.4 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 28.2 28.5 29.5 0.7 59.7 59.5 26.7 27.8 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 20.6 20.6 21.0 -1.9 23.6 26.8 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 28.9 28.3 28.4 -0.3 46.2 47.7 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 28.5 28.3 28.4 0.2 52.1 52.3 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 29.3 29.0 29.7 1.1 64.8 63.8 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 28.1 27.3 26.9 -0.5 43.3 45.0 26.6 27.7 28.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 28.9 28.3 27.3 -0.2 46.9 48.2 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 26.4 26.6 24.0 -1.4 29.3 32.7 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 28.3 28.1 28.1 0.1 51.4 52.2 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 27.9 29.1 26.6 -0.4 44.6 46.0 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 20.8 20.9 22.7 -1.6 28.4 31.1 21.3 22.6 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 28.4 28.5 29.4 0.5 57.2 57.4 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------