***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 16.9 16.9 18.9 0.9 68.4 63.8 14.6 15.7 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 16.8 16.6 18.6 0.8 66.9 62.7 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 19.3 19.2 19.1 1.0 70.2 65.2 16.5 17.7 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 15.1 15.3 16.8 1.1 72.7 67.0 12.0 13.4 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 15.1 15.1 16.5 0.9 70.2 64.8 12.4 13.6 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.3 14.3 0.5 61.4 58.8 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 17.3 17.2 18.8 0.9 68.2 63.4 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 9.6 9.4 14.1 0.7 67.1 62.6 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 16.4 16.3 16.6 0.9 69.4 64.1 14.0 15.1 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 16.0 15.9 14.9 0.7 66.6 62.1 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 15.8 15.9 16.0 1.0 72.2 66.0 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 13.8 13.7 14.9 0.8 68.9 63.8 11.7 12.7 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.1 13.9 0.2 54.9 53.9 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.1 16.2 16.0 0.4 58.9 57.3 14.6 15.6 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 17.4 17.5 18.1 1.0 72.3 66.9 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 16.5 16.3 15.2 0.7 66.0 61.6 14.1 15.2 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.5 18.3 0.7 63.9 60.3 15.7 16.7 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.8 13.8 0.4 59.9 57.5 12.1 13.2 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 16.8 16.7 18.7 0.9 69.0 64.4 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.3 11.5 0.2 54.7 54.2 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 16.2 16.0 17.9 0.8 67.9 63.3 13.8 14.9 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 16.4 16.0 18.1 0.6 63.7 60.5 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 16.1 16.1 18.7 1.0 72.0 66.6 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 15.9 16.2 16.0 0.5 63.0 59.8 14.4 15.5 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 16.3 16.1 17.4 0.8 66.8 62.6 13.7 14.9 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.7 14.0 0.6 64.6 60.2 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 16.9 16.6 18.0 0.8 66.5 62.5 13.8 15.2 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 15.0 15.0 17.0 1.0 70.9 65.7 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.2 13.1 0.3 57.4 56.1 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 17.4 17.3 18.9 0.9 68.8 64.1 14.8 16.0 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------