***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 3.8 10.1 8.1 68.8 52.0 32.7 4.8 9.4 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 3.9 8.9 6.3 65.8 51.2 32.2 4.7 8.6 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 4.8 12.1 9.2 82.6 57.6 36.3 5.4 9.7 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 3.0 8.7 10.2 81.4 55.8 37.5 3.6 7.2 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 3.0 9.2 11.4 90.8 60.5 38.8 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 2.5 6.2 10.8 75.0 51.2 39.4 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 4.4 12.7 7.2 73.4 54.5 31.9 6.1 11.0 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 7.8 18.3 15.9 95.0 60.6 44.0 8.3 13.9 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 2.6 10.5 13.7 99.1 63.5 40.1 3.0 6.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 5.6 16.6 16.4 95.1 61.1 42.4 6.0 11.5 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 3.2 9.7 12.2 99.4 63.7 40.6 3.6 6.5 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 4.2 11.6 11.9 98.5 62.2 42.5 4.7 8.2 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 2.5 7.6 10.4 84.9 57.6 36.1 3.3 6.1 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 5.7 16.1 13.5 87.9 58.9 40.1 6.0 11.9 20.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 2.0 7.6 8.3 85.6 60.1 37.2 2.2 5.0 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 3.5 9.6 10.7 90.3 59.2 37.6 4.1 7.4 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 3.1 9.6 7.3 76.8 55.9 29.9 4.2 7.9 13.1 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 5.8 14.2 17.4 94.4 59.8 42.5 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 4.7 10.1 7.0 68.4 52.3 34.2 5.4 9.4 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 5.7 13.6 17.1 92.2 58.7 44.7 6.0 10.6 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 4.0 14.8 12.0 95.5 62.3 38.5 4.4 9.4 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 4.0 10.4 7.1 74.4 55.0 32.5 4.7 9.0 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 6.0 13.0 9.0 79.2 56.2 36.4 6.0 10.7 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.7 14.4 13.6 91.9 60.1 41.3 5.9 10.7 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 3.7 9.4 9.8 82.2 57.2 34.2 4.3 7.6 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.5 6.9 7.1 71.7 52.3 38.5 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 4.3 10.7 8.8 72.6 53.7 33.6 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 2.8 9.2 10.8 89.7 59.6 38.6 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.8 18.1 16.5 89.2 57.5 42.5 7.9 14.5 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 5.5 10.4 6.7 64.7 50.6 32.8 6.5 10.2 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------