***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 58.1 52.6 31.9 82.2 53.4 46.8 31.4 48.8 70.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 48.6 47.9 30.3 88.3 56.4 47.8 31.5 43.0 56.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 55.7 51.5 33.7 84.0 53.6 47.0 34.0 48.2 64.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 60.3 55.7 34.5 84.6 53.9 47.1 33.5 51.0 72.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 50.1 42.6 30.8 78.8 50.9 44.1 28.1 41.6 58.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 52.6 54.3 44.0 96.8 58.5 49.8 30.4 45.2 63.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 48.6 47.6 29.8 87.3 56.1 48.2 29.4 42.5 57.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 80.2 78.6 43.1 91.0 55.8 50.2 51.0 70.9 93.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 27.5 41.4 34.1 79.7 50.7 44.5 26.7 41.0 57.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 69.5 62.6 42.8 85.1 53.0 47.3 40.4 59.0 81.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 44.9 37.8 30.1 80.7 51.6 45.1 22.9 36.4 53.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 52.9 52.1 32.8 90.6 56.5 49.6 27.8 44.6 65.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 35.7 32.8 32.0 85.2 54.4 45.7 18.2 29.2 43.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 74.1 71.4 49.3 89.6 55.8 48.8 47.5 64.9 84.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 37.9 37.6 30.7 91.2 58.2 49.5 17.7 30.2 46.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 36.7 32.5 31.0 83.4 53.4 45.5 18.7 29.9 44.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 50.2 48.9 30.0 87.3 55.5 47.4 34.2 45.2 57.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 64.7 61.3 53.1 90.7 54.9 49.3 41.7 56.5 73.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 57.2 56.3 32.7 89.7 56.9 48.5 35.3 49.7 66.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 57.5 58.6 57.5 100.4 59.2 53.7 37.5 50.4 65.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 53.6 47.7 33.3 81.0 52.4 46.4 30.8 45.2 62.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 59.9 61.9 34.6 94.5 58.9 50.2 39.9 53.6 69.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 54.3 54.0 37.0 91.1 57.1 49.3 36.1 48.3 61.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 60.8 56.6 44.8 86.0 53.7 47.7 37.8 53.0 70.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 54.0 48.2 35.1 81.5 52.9 47.0 30.5 45.6 63.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 37.3 35.5 26.9 89.5 55.9 47.8 20.4 31.0 44.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 63.1 56.7 34.5 81.1 52.2 46.5 37.9 54.7 74.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 48.6 47.2 33.4 87.2 55.7 48.3 27.9 41.7 58.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 83.8 81.1 57.0 92.9 55.3 50.1 58.2 75.0 94.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 54.9 52.6 31.0 86.1 55.3 47.3 35.0 48.1 63.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------