***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 5.8 11.4 6.2 66.0 52.8 36.4 5.6 10.4 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 4.0 8.4 4.9 60.5 50.9 35.2 4.3 8.1 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 4.8 9.7 6.0 66.2 52.7 36.7 5.0 9.0 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.2 8.3 7.4 67.5 52.6 40.7 4.0 7.7 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.2 5.4 5.2 51.6 44.4 33.2 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.3 7.5 8.4 69.3 52.3 43.5 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 4.8 10.6 4.9 62.1 51.4 35.7 5.6 10.2 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.7 14.4 8.7 66.1 50.6 41.3 8.3 14.1 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.9 6.2 6.2 58.1 47.7 35.3 3.1 6.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 5.9 10.3 7.8 56.0 46.4 36.5 6.1 11.7 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 3.0 5.2 5.1 47.8 43.1 32.5 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.2 7.9 6.6 68.2 51.8 40.9 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 2.8 4.0 4.7 44.6 41.4 32.9 2.9 5.5 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.3 12.4 8.3 63.0 52.6 41.1 5.7 11.4 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.9 10.0 8.0 90.5 63.6 48.4 2.3 5.5 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.0 5.0 5.2 50.4 44.3 35.1 3.1 6.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.8 9.4 5.6 68.9 54.5 38.2 3.9 8.1 14.1 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 6.2 11.5 9.9 65.7 50.2 39.9 6.4 11.5 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 4.5 9.5 5.6 64.5 52.5 35.8 4.8 8.7 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.4 12.4 10.4 67.8 50.3 43.0 7.4 12.4 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.2 9.0 6.1 60.2 49.6 35.9 4.3 9.0 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.7 11.8 6.2 76.4 57.6 40.4 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 6.0 13.4 7.0 72.3 55.8 38.2 6.0 11.2 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.7 11.7 8.3 67.2 53.3 40.5 5.6 10.5 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 3.7 6.9 5.5 52.6 46.4 32.3 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.8 5.4 4.9 62.2 51.0 39.3 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 5.5 10.5 5.9 58.6 49.9 35.3 5.7 10.5 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.1 9.0 7.6 74.0 55.9 44.4 3.6 7.2 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 7.5 14.5 10.0 67.0 50.8 41.9 7.3 14.1 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 5.1 9.4 4.9 57.6 49.1 34.3 5.9 9.6 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------