***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 27.1 28.8 30.0 0.1 51.0 50.4 27.3 28.8 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 29.3 28.5 29.8 -0.2 47.9 48.2 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 29.4 29.2 30.5 0.3 54.2 52.4 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 22.7 23.3 28.7 1.0 63.3 59.2 20.7 22.2 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 30.0 30.5 28.9 0.9 61.1 57.3 27.9 29.4 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.6 28.9 26.2 0.8 61.5 57.6 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 27.1 28.3 29.5 -0.3 45.8 46.5 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.4 26.8 0.4 54.8 52.4 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.9 29.1 0.9 61.6 57.5 27.2 28.8 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.0 29.3 27.6 0.7 59.3 55.7 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.8 28.8 0.8 59.9 56.3 27.4 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 28.6 28.6 28.5 0.5 56.1 53.5 26.6 28.0 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 29.9 30.1 27.7 0.7 59.5 56.1 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 26.7 28.0 27.3 -0.4 45.5 45.9 26.9 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 30.5 30.9 29.9 0.8 61.0 58.3 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 30.6 31.2 28.5 1.0 63.0 58.6 28.6 30.1 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.7 28.0 29.6 -0.1 49.0 48.9 26.7 28.1 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 28.2 27.9 26.3 0.3 53.8 51.7 26.2 27.6 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 28.8 28.2 30.1 0.0 49.8 49.4 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 23.9 23.4 23.6 0.1 51.1 49.8 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.4 29.6 0.5 56.4 53.9 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 29.2 28.5 29.5 0.0 49.8 49.5 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.4 30.1 0.0 50.5 49.8 26.9 28.4 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.2 27.8 0.1 51.0 49.8 26.7 28.2 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 29.9 29.6 28.3 0.3 53.9 52.5 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 29.5 29.6 28.3 0.5 57.2 54.7 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 26.8 28.6 28.9 0.0 50.6 50.2 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 30.5 31.2 29.3 1.1 64.6 60.5 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.6 23.1 25.1 0.1 51.5 50.0 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.1 28.4 29.9 -0.1 49.1 49.0 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------