***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 14.9 8.5 162.2 79.7 50.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 2.9 13.7 7.1 118.4 70.4 48.0 2.8 6.3 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.2 20.2 8.0 136.5 74.6 48.9 2.7 6.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.3 24.1 8.0 135.5 74.8 54.5 3.9 9.1 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.0 15.0 8.0 133.3 74.2 52.9 2.6 5.8 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.4 18.7 9.6 124.3 72.5 53.8 3.6 8.0 14.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.6 15.0 6.9 116.8 69.9 48.9 3.6 7.6 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.0 26.2 9.0 130.6 73.4 54.2 5.6 11.6 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.8 15.5 8.1 130.8 73.8 50.5 2.4 5.8 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.7 23.0 9.0 124.2 72.2 52.4 3.8 9.3 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.7 13.7 6.8 122.6 71.9 52.1 2.5 5.7 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.9 18.0 7.0 131.9 74.0 52.6 2.6 6.4 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.7 12.4 7.8 133.6 74.5 52.6 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.5 20.3 8.5 104.5 66.7 47.7 4.7 10.7 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.0 13.7 6.3 122.9 72.2 50.1 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.6 10.4 7.5 127.3 73.1 53.2 2.7 5.0 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.7 17.7 6.4 105.9 67.3 47.6 4.5 9.5 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.0 19.2 10.6 117.0 70.3 52.9 4.2 9.2 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 4.2 20.7 7.2 119.6 70.8 46.9 4.1 9.2 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.9 14.5 12.0 123.7 71.5 55.1 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 3.8 19.8 7.6 141.7 75.8 49.2 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.9 18.0 6.2 99.8 65.5 46.1 5.5 10.8 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.3 16.1 7.3 118.0 70.3 45.2 3.4 7.5 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.3 18.9 9.0 116.3 70.1 50.5 3.5 8.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.2 24.0 9.6 154.9 78.4 54.5 3.5 8.0 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.8 17.2 5.6 135.4 74.6 52.5 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.0 24.4 9.8 160.8 79.4 53.1 3.8 8.2 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.3 18.3 7.2 125.0 72.6 52.0 3.6 8.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.0 24.9 10.7 114.7 69.5 52.6 6.1 12.6 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 4.1 19.7 7.6 128.5 72.9 48.8 4.3 8.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------