***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 93 7 0 100 9999.0 14.4 16.4 -1.8 14.9 16.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 94 6 0 100 13.4 13.2 16.3 -1.9 15.2 16.8 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 95 5 0 100 15.6 15.5 16.6 -1.7 16.5 18.2 16.6 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 94 6 0 100 10.8 10.1 14.5 -2.1 10.5 12.5 11.9 12.9 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 12.3 11.5 14.4 -2.2 8.8 11.3 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 11.4 10.7 12.3 -2.0 8.4 11.0 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 13.9 13.6 16.4 -2.0 14.7 16.2 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 97 3 0 100 6.5 5.5 11.9 -2.4 7.0 9.5 7.5 8.4 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 97 3 0 100 13.5 12.8 15.0 -2.0 9.9 12.3 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 96 4 0 100 13.4 12.7 13.1 -2.1 9.4 11.8 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 13.3 12.5 13.9 -2.1 8.6 11.0 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 11.4 10.5 12.7 -2.4 6.4 9.0 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 12.8 12.1 13.1 -2.0 8.4 11.2 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 14.3 13.7 14.7 -2.1 10.3 12.4 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 92 8 0 100 14.7 14.6 16.6 -1.4 16.8 18.5 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 96 4 0 100 13.8 13.0 13.7 -2.0 8.2 11.0 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 92 8 0 100 14.4 14.3 16.1 -1.8 16.8 18.5 15.3 16.1 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 12.0 11.2 12.1 -2.2 8.3 10.5 12.9 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 94 6 0 100 13.7 13.5 16.4 -1.9 15.4 17.1 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 97 3 0 100 7.9 7.1 9.8 -2.4 7.3 9.5 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 95 5 0 100 13.3 12.7 16.0 -2.0 11.6 13.6 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 90 10 0 100 13.5 13.4 16.3 -1.7 17.9 19.8 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 13.5 13.4 16.2 -1.9 14.2 16.1 14.3 14.9 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 96 4 0 100 13.8 13.3 14.5 -2.0 11.2 13.3 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 13.6 13.0 15.2 -2.1 10.5 12.4 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 12.6 11.5 12.0 -2.6 4.7 6.6 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 94 6 0 100 13.1 12.6 15.7 -2.0 12.6 14.5 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 95 5 0 100 12.5 12.1 15.3 -1.9 11.6 13.7 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 93 7 0 100 10.6 10.0 11.5 -2.0 11.0 13.3 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 93 7 0 100 14.1 13.9 16.6 -1.9 15.7 17.2 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------