***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 15.2 15.2 17.4 -1.0 30.8 32.8 15.3 15.9 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 13.7 13.8 17.0 -1.3 25.1 27.0 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 16.2 16.2 17.1 -1.2 27.1 29.3 16.5 17.3 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 11.1 10.9 14.6 -1.7 17.9 20.5 11.9 12.8 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 12.8 12.7 15.1 -1.4 22.2 24.7 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 12.1 12.2 13.5 -0.8 29.9 32.0 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 14.2 14.2 17.0 -1.4 23.9 25.9 14.7 15.6 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 7.1 7.3 13.1 -1.1 28.1 30.1 7.6 8.4 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 13.9 13.8 15.5 -1.5 21.1 23.4 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 13.9 13.8 13.7 -1.3 23.9 26.2 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 13.6 13.5 14.5 -1.4 21.7 24.1 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 11.9 12.0 13.9 -1.1 27.4 29.6 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.6 13.5 14.1 -0.9 28.6 31.3 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 14.5 14.3 15.0 -1.6 18.4 21.2 15.0 15.8 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 91 9 0 100 14.8 14.3 16.0 -1.8 12.3 15.3 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 14.4 14.3 14.6 -1.1 25.4 28.1 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 14.7 14.7 16.5 -1.4 23.7 25.4 15.2 16.0 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 12.4 12.3 12.6 -1.3 21.2 24.2 12.9 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 14.0 14.1 16.9 -1.4 24.4 26.4 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 8.3 8.4 10.8 -1.1 25.5 28.0 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 13.8 13.8 16.7 -1.4 23.9 26.1 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 13.4 13.4 16.3 -1.7 19.8 21.5 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 13.6 13.7 16.6 -1.5 21.5 23.8 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 14.1 13.9 14.9 -1.5 19.9 22.7 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 14.1 14.0 16.0 -1.2 25.9 28.4 14.4 15.1 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 13.3 13.6 13.9 -0.7 35.5 37.0 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 13.9 14.0 16.7 -1.0 29.3 31.5 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 12.6 12.3 15.3 -1.7 16.5 19.2 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 11.0 10.8 12.0 -1.3 20.7 23.9 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 14.5 14.5 17.3 -1.3 26.3 28.3 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------