***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 14.6 14.5 16.5 -1.8 17.9 20.5 15.1 15.7 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 13.7 13.7 16.7 -1.5 23.6 25.8 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 15.7 15.6 16.6 -1.8 18.8 21.2 16.4 17.3 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 10.9 10.2 14.1 -2.0 13.0 16.8 11.7 12.7 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 12.5 11.9 14.3 -2.0 12.8 16.4 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 94 6 0 100 11.4 10.9 11.9 -1.9 11.3 14.3 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 14.2 14.2 16.8 -1.5 23.4 25.5 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 6.7 6.4 12.3 -1.7 16.9 20.3 7.5 8.3 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 13.7 13.2 14.9 -1.8 14.0 18.2 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 13.6 13.3 13.3 -1.6 16.7 20.2 14.3 15.0 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 86 14 0 100 13.3 12.9 14.0 -1.8 13.8 16.9 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 83 17 0 100 11.5 11.2 13.1 -1.7 15.8 19.1 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 12.9 12.6 13.0 -1.7 14.7 17.2 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 14.4 14.3 15.1 -1.6 20.1 22.8 15.0 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 14.8 14.3 16.2 -1.7 13.7 17.1 15.5 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 88 12 0 100 13.8 13.2 13.6 -1.9 12.7 15.5 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 14.7 14.7 16.4 -1.4 24.4 26.8 15.2 16.0 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 12.3 12.1 12.6 -1.6 17.6 20.8 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 14.0 14.0 16.7 -1.5 23.7 25.9 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 8.2 8.0 10.3 -1.7 16.9 20.2 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 13.5 13.2 16.3 -1.8 16.8 19.9 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 13.7 13.8 16.8 -1.3 27.2 29.3 14.1 15.0 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 13.7 13.6 16.6 -1.5 23.4 25.8 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 13.8 13.7 14.9 -1.6 19.2 22.0 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 13.7 13.3 15.3 -2.1 14.8 17.6 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 12.7 12.2 12.0 -2.1 12.6 15.6 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 13.4 13.1 15.8 -1.9 16.5 19.0 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 12.5 11.9 14.9 -1.9 12.8 16.3 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 10.9 10.8 12.0 -1.4 21.5 24.5 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 14.3 14.3 16.9 -1.6 22.8 24.8 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------