***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.9 20.2 0.9 66.4 61.0 15.0 15.9 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.5 20.0 0.6 61.8 58.3 14.8 15.9 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.5 18.9 20.4 0.7 63.5 59.0 16.9 18.0 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 14.2 15.2 17.8 0.9 68.4 63.1 12.5 13.8 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.8 17.6 0.7 63.9 59.4 12.9 14.0 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.2 15.3 0.3 57.1 54.7 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.6 17.0 20.2 0.8 64.8 60.6 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.7 15.4 0.6 63.4 59.6 7.8 8.9 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.8 16.2 17.5 0.6 63.4 59.1 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.9 16.1 0.7 65.5 60.9 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.4 17.2 0.5 61.2 57.5 13.8 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.4 16.2 0.4 58.8 56.1 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.1 15.0 0.1 52.0 50.9 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 14.8 16.7 17.6 0.7 64.5 59.4 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 16.8 17.3 19.2 0.7 64.6 60.6 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.9 16.2 0.3 56.9 54.4 14.5 15.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.2 17.7 19.9 0.9 66.4 61.3 15.8 16.8 17.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.7 14.5 15.2 0.8 68.6 63.3 12.4 13.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.4 20.0 0.6 60.8 57.4 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 10.1 10.1 12.8 0.7 67.7 63.2 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.5 16.1 19.2 0.8 65.7 60.5 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.8 16.3 19.8 0.8 65.7 60.4 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.7 19.9 0.5 59.9 56.5 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.6 17.4 0.7 66.5 61.3 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.6 16.4 18.7 0.9 68.4 62.9 14.1 15.2 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.1 14.8 0.0 51.1 50.2 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.0 17.0 19.5 1.0 68.4 62.7 14.2 15.5 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.8 18.0 0.7 63.8 59.7 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.5 14.3 14.7 0.8 68.3 63.1 12.1 13.1 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.7 17.0 20.2 0.6 61.9 58.3 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------