***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 28.8 27.6 27.0 -0.7 38.2 39.4 27.2 28.3 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 28.4 27.7 27.6 -0.4 43.7 44.5 27.0 28.1 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 28.5 27.2 27.1 -0.9 36.3 37.7 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 21.4 20.4 24.6 -0.4 42.6 43.7 19.6 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 29.1 27.5 25.3 -0.9 36.1 37.6 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 27.5 26.8 23.1 -0.3 45.2 45.9 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 28.4 27.3 27.3 -0.6 39.6 40.8 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.0 15.5 23.0 -0.8 36.4 38.1 15.2 16.5 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 28.5 27.2 26.3 -0.7 38.3 39.6 26.8 28.1 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 28.2 26.8 24.0 -0.8 37.1 38.6 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 28.5 27.2 25.7 -0.7 38.9 40.2 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 27.7 26.5 24.4 -0.6 40.4 41.6 25.9 27.2 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 28.8 28.2 25.4 -0.2 47.4 47.9 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 28.0 27.5 26.3 -0.2 46.3 46.8 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 29.2 29.0 27.8 0.0 50.4 50.3 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 29.4 28.4 25.3 -0.4 43.5 44.3 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 27.8 27.6 27.7 0.2 53.4 52.6 26.4 27.4 28.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 27.5 26.1 23.1 -0.8 36.8 38.4 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 28.0 27.5 27.8 -0.2 46.8 47.2 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 23.3 21.8 21.0 -0.8 37.1 38.8 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 28.6 27.2 27.0 -0.9 35.8 37.2 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 28.2 28.7 28.2 0.7 62.6 61.0 26.9 28.0 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 28.1 28.1 28.0 0.2 54.0 53.6 26.8 27.8 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 27.8 26.8 25.8 -0.6 40.1 41.2 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 28.6 27.4 25.9 -0.7 38.2 39.6 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 28.3 27.6 24.0 -0.2 46.0 46.6 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 28.2 27.2 26.5 -0.5 40.6 41.8 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 29.4 28.7 25.9 -0.3 44.7 45.5 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 22.8 21.3 22.3 -0.9 36.4 38.1 21.1 22.3 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 28.3 27.2 27.4 -0.7 38.5 39.8 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------