***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.3 14.9 11.2 91.8 62.2 45.0 3.9 9.0 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.5 13.7 11.5 97.9 64.0 46.3 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 5.2 13.7 11.1 89.9 60.4 44.6 4.8 9.7 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 3.2 11.1 9.4 96.1 63.2 40.7 3.4 6.9 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 3.0 12.4 10.3 102.5 65.0 41.6 3.6 7.3 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 2.4 6.2 9.7 83.3 56.4 36.9 2.7 5.1 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 6.5 15.6 10.5 86.7 60.0 44.8 6.2 11.4 18.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 6.8 17.0 10.3 90.9 61.5 39.7 7.9 12.8 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 3.2 12.2 10.0 92.8 61.8 39.0 3.4 7.8 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 4.9 16.2 11.3 91.2 61.4 40.5 5.8 11.1 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 2.7 8.4 9.9 86.5 57.7 37.2 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.5 10.4 8.9 94.7 62.2 38.9 3.5 7.0 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.6 7.9 10.4 110.8 68.1 41.9 2.6 4.6 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 5.0 16.4 14.0 94.2 61.9 42.1 5.3 10.8 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.0 7.4 8.9 98.4 63.5 41.7 1.9 4.3 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.0 8.4 10.2 106.7 66.1 39.6 3.1 5.4 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.5 8.0 12.5 102.9 65.5 46.6 2.4 4.8 8.2 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 6.2 13.6 12.0 86.4 58.8 39.4 6.9 11.1 16.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 5.8 15.3 11.7 101.3 64.9 46.0 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 5.5 14.9 12.5 93.6 61.2 41.9 6.3 10.8 16.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 4.5 13.6 9.9 86.4 59.7 40.2 4.8 9.7 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.8 12.9 12.5 104.8 65.9 47.5 5.0 8.5 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 6.0 17.8 12.6 104.6 65.6 46.1 6.3 11.3 18.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.4 14.3 12.2 90.8 60.0 41.8 5.7 10.5 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.2 12.7 12.7 98.3 63.5 45.2 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.8 6.0 7.1 79.2 54.7 35.3 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.4 13.0 12.5 92.0 61.5 45.1 4.2 8.6 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.6 10.9 9.1 104.8 66.1 40.4 2.8 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 7.9 17.2 13.2 86.8 58.0 41.0 8.6 14.1 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 5.5 13.3 10.9 89.8 61.4 45.0 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------