***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.7 18.8 0.4 58.7 55.8 14.4 15.3 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.3 18.6 0.3 54.8 53.7 14.0 15.0 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.4 19.2 0.5 59.3 57.2 16.1 17.0 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.6 13.0 16.7 0.7 64.6 60.1 11.3 12.2 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.3 16.5 0.5 59.9 56.9 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 13.5 13.6 14.9 0.8 69.3 64.3 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.6 18.7 0.3 55.1 53.7 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.1 8.2 14.2 0.4 58.3 57.3 7.1 7.8 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.5 16.5 0.5 60.7 57.8 14.2 15.0 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.4 15.0 0.4 60.2 58.2 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.2 16.1 0.5 60.2 57.7 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.1 15.2 0.4 59.5 57.9 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.7 14.6 0.6 64.6 61.0 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.9 16.2 0.3 56.5 55.3 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.6 17.0 18.2 0.6 63.9 60.0 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.5 16.0 15.6 0.7 66.5 62.2 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.1 18.5 0.4 57.2 55.7 14.8 15.7 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.7 14.0 0.4 60.8 58.7 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.3 18.6 0.3 54.8 54.0 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.8 11.7 0.5 62.3 60.0 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.3 17.9 0.5 59.8 57.1 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.2 18.3 0.3 56.5 55.6 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.8 18.6 0.2 54.6 54.1 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.7 16.1 0.3 57.9 56.4 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.5 17.3 0.5 60.0 56.7 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.4 14.4 0.6 64.7 60.6 13.0 13.7 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.2 18.0 0.5 59.4 56.1 13.6 14.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.9 17.2 0.8 67.4 62.6 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.5 13.5 0.5 61.5 59.2 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.7 18.8 0.3 55.5 54.1 14.4 15.4 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------