***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 15.3 16.5 -1.0 26.1 30.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 14.0 14.0 16.6 -1.1 25.7 30.7 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 16.2 16.3 16.6 -0.9 28.4 32.9 16.6 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 11.5 11.2 14.8 -1.2 21.9 27.6 11.9 12.9 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 12.9 12.7 14.5 -1.2 22.5 28.6 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 12.0 12.0 12.9 -0.9 26.0 30.5 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 14.4 14.3 16.6 -1.1 24.3 29.9 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 7.0 6.9 12.6 -1.2 21.5 27.1 7.5 8.4 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 14.1 14.0 14.9 -1.1 24.2 30.4 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 13.9 13.8 13.3 -1.1 22.7 28.8 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 13.9 13.8 14.1 -1.0 24.7 30.1 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 11.9 11.8 13.6 -1.1 23.1 28.1 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 13.4 13.3 13.2 -0.9 25.7 30.1 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 14.7 14.6 14.7 -1.2 22.2 28.4 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 15.3 15.2 15.7 -1.0 26.2 31.2 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 14.4 14.3 13.9 -1.0 24.9 29.7 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 14.9 14.9 16.3 -1.0 25.5 31.1 15.3 16.1 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 12.4 12.3 12.6 -1.1 22.0 28.1 12.9 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 14.2 14.3 16.6 -1.0 26.7 31.5 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 8.3 8.2 10.7 -1.2 21.3 26.6 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 13.9 13.9 15.9 -1.0 26.2 31.5 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 13.9 13.9 16.2 -1.1 25.4 30.8 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 14.0 14.0 16.3 -1.0 26.3 31.1 14.3 14.9 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 14.2 14.3 14.6 -1.0 24.9 30.6 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 14.1 14.0 15.1 -1.1 24.2 29.7 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 13.0 12.9 13.1 -1.1 22.3 27.3 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 13.7 13.7 15.7 -1.0 24.9 30.1 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 13.2 13.0 15.2 -1.1 24.2 29.2 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 11.1 10.9 11.9 -1.1 22.0 27.6 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 14.6 14.6 16.7 -1.0 26.0 30.9 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------