***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 29.1 29.2 28.9 1.7 70.8 68.0 25.9 27.3 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 27.3 28.1 28.5 1.1 63.7 61.7 25.3 26.9 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 27.4 28.2 28.6 1.2 63.8 62.0 25.4 26.9 28.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 21.9 22.1 26.4 1.8 72.4 69.8 18.6 20.1 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 29.2 29.3 27.5 1.8 70.7 68.0 25.7 27.3 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 28.3 29.5 25.9 2.7 83.4 78.8 24.4 25.9 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 28.4 28.2 28.6 1.4 66.7 64.4 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 17.2 17.4 25.0 1.7 70.6 67.5 14.0 15.5 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 28.7 28.7 28.0 1.6 69.0 66.5 25.2 26.8 28.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 28.4 28.4 25.8 1.5 68.2 65.5 25.1 26.7 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 28.9 29.1 27.9 1.9 72.4 69.1 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 27.9 28.5 26.7 2.1 75.3 71.3 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 29.3 30.6 28.1 2.9 83.4 78.2 25.5 27.1 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 27.3 27.9 26.7 0.9 61.3 59.5 25.3 26.8 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 29.9 30.3 29.2 1.8 74.2 71.5 26.7 28.1 29.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 29.8 30.6 27.7 2.4 78.0 73.9 26.1 27.8 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 27.9 27.9 28.2 1.4 67.8 65.2 24.8 26.3 27.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 26.4 27.3 24.5 1.2 64.8 62.5 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 26.8 27.5 28.4 1.1 63.0 61.1 24.9 26.4 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 23.6 23.9 23.2 1.8 72.0 68.6 20.1 21.8 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 28.7 28.6 28.9 1.5 67.7 65.4 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 27.2 28.4 28.0 1.4 68.0 65.1 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 27.2 28.1 28.3 1.3 65.1 62.4 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 26.9 27.5 26.8 1.0 62.2 60.3 24.9 26.4 27.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 29.1 29.4 28.1 1.9 73.8 70.8 25.6 27.2 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 28.9 30.6 27.1 3.1 85.7 80.2 25.1 26.7 28.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 28.5 28.9 28.6 2.0 75.0 71.5 25.2 26.7 28.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 30.0 30.2 27.5 1.7 72.0 69.4 26.7 28.2 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 23.0 23.0 24.0 1.4 66.8 64.2 19.7 21.3 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 27.2 28.0 28.6 1.2 64.2 62.3 25.3 26.8 28.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------