***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 28.1 28.6 28.7 1.0 67.3 64.9 27.4 28.0 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 28.3 28.3 28.8 0.9 65.2 63.4 26.9 27.6 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 28.4 28.3 28.8 0.8 64.8 62.9 26.8 27.6 28.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 20.9 21.1 26.1 0.5 58.9 57.5 19.9 20.7 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 28.4 28.5 26.6 0.4 57.9 56.6 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 27.0 27.3 24.2 0.5 61.8 59.8 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 27.7 28.1 28.8 0.9 64.9 63.0 26.8 27.5 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.2 24.3 0.2 53.4 52.8 15.3 16.0 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 27.9 28.2 27.2 0.6 61.5 59.7 26.8 27.6 28.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 27.7 27.7 25.3 0.3 55.7 54.8 26.6 27.4 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 28.0 28.0 26.4 0.3 56.2 55.1 26.8 27.7 28.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 27.1 27.2 25.7 0.3 56.9 55.7 26.1 26.9 27.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 28.2 28.3 25.6 0.4 57.9 56.6 27.1 28.0 28.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 27.6 27.8 26.7 0.6 60.9 59.5 26.7 27.4 28.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 29.5 29.5 28.0 0.8 67.0 64.3 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 28.9 29.1 26.1 0.4 59.0 57.4 27.7 28.6 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 27.3 27.7 28.6 0.9 65.0 63.0 26.3 27.1 27.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 26.9 26.8 24.5 0.3 55.0 54.2 25.8 26.6 27.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 27.9 27.8 28.9 0.9 65.9 64.1 26.4 27.2 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 22.6 22.3 21.9 0.0 49.0 49.1 21.5 22.3 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 28.0 28.3 28.1 0.6 62.1 60.4 26.9 27.7 28.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 28.3 28.2 28.5 0.9 66.2 64.2 26.8 27.5 28.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 28.2 28.2 28.8 1.0 67.9 65.8 26.7 27.4 28.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 27.3 27.4 26.6 0.5 59.2 57.8 26.3 27.0 27.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 28.0 28.4 27.1 0.7 62.9 61.0 27.0 27.8 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 27.8 28.1 25.4 0.6 61.9 60.2 26.8 27.6 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 27.5 28.0 27.8 0.8 65.4 63.2 26.6 27.3 28.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 29.0 29.2 26.7 0.5 60.3 58.7 27.9 28.7 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 22.2 22.0 23.5 0.1 52.1 51.7 21.1 21.9 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 28.2 28.1 28.8 0.9 65.2 63.4 26.7 27.4 28.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------