***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 30.0 29.5 1.3 69.8 63.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 29.2 29.6 29.9 1.7 73.6 66.9 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 29.3 29.4 29.7 1.5 71.5 65.1 26.6 27.9 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 22.3 22.5 28.0 1.3 70.2 64.1 19.7 21.0 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 29.6 29.9 28.0 1.4 71.6 65.2 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 28.3 28.7 25.9 1.5 73.3 66.1 25.9 27.1 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 29.2 29.5 29.6 1.5 71.6 65.3 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 17.3 17.8 26.3 1.6 73.5 65.9 15.0 16.2 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 29.2 29.5 28.2 1.5 72.0 65.3 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 28.8 29.1 26.9 1.5 72.7 65.6 26.4 27.6 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 29.1 29.6 27.7 1.6 74.5 67.2 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 28.3 28.8 27.5 1.6 74.5 66.9 25.9 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 29.4 29.9 27.0 1.6 73.9 66.6 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 28.7 28.5 27.5 1.1 65.3 60.4 26.5 27.6 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 30.2 30.7 28.6 1.4 72.9 66.0 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 30.2 30.6 27.5 1.5 73.4 66.4 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 28.1 29.2 29.5 1.6 72.4 66.0 26.5 27.6 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 28.0 28.1 25.8 1.4 70.4 63.6 25.5 26.7 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 28.8 29.1 30.0 1.7 73.5 66.8 26.3 27.5 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 22.9 24.0 23.8 1.4 71.2 63.8 21.3 22.5 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 29.3 29.5 29.1 1.4 70.7 64.5 26.7 27.9 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 28.4 29.3 29.3 1.4 70.2 64.4 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 28.9 29.1 29.6 1.5 71.4 65.1 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 28.5 28.5 27.6 1.3 68.8 62.7 26.1 27.2 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 29.4 29.5 27.9 1.2 68.8 63.1 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 29.0 29.4 27.1 1.5 72.7 65.8 26.9 28.0 28.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 28.1 28.9 28.5 1.2 68.2 62.6 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 30.3 30.5 28.3 1.3 70.7 64.4 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 23.4 23.5 24.7 1.3 69.4 62.6 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 29.1 29.5 30.0 1.6 73.0 66.4 26.5 27.8 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------