***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 9999.0 17.6 18.8 1.1 74.8 66.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.2 16.9 19.1 1.3 77.7 70.2 14.0 15.1 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 17.9 18.5 18.9 1.2 76.1 68.3 16.1 17.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 13.3 13.6 16.9 0.9 71.5 65.4 11.3 12.3 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 14.8 15.1 16.7 1.0 72.9 66.0 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 13.6 13.9 14.8 1.0 74.0 68.1 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 16.4 16.8 19.0 1.2 75.1 68.1 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 8.8 9.1 15.0 1.1 74.6 66.7 7.2 8.0 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 15.8 16.2 17.0 1.1 74.3 66.4 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 15.8 16.2 15.6 1.1 74.2 66.5 14.1 15.0 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 15.7 16.1 16.3 1.2 76.6 69.5 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 13.5 14.0 16.0 1.1 76.3 68.9 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 14.9 15.3 15.4 1.0 75.5 69.3 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.4 16.6 0.7 64.7 60.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 17.3 17.6 17.7 1.1 75.3 68.8 15.7 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 16.2 16.6 16.0 1.1 75.5 69.2 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 16.8 17.2 18.7 1.2 74.8 67.9 14.9 15.8 16.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 14.3 14.5 14.8 0.9 71.3 64.1 12.5 13.3 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 16.2 16.8 19.1 1.4 77.9 70.3 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.4 10.1 13.1 0.9 70.5 63.4 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 15.8 16.1 18.0 1.1 74.2 66.2 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 15.9 16.2 18.5 1.1 72.5 66.3 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 15.7 16.1 18.7 1.2 75.2 68.1 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 16.3 16.4 16.6 0.9 70.2 63.7 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.2 16.2 17.2 1.0 73.0 65.5 14.0 15.0 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 47 53 100 14.4 14.8 15.5 1.0 73.4 67.4 13.0 13.7 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 15.8 16.2 17.9 1.0 72.7 65.3 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 15.0 15.2 17.2 0.9 72.2 66.4 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.9 14.0 0.9 69.3 62.7 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 16.5 17.2 19.2 1.3 77.9 70.1 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------