***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 29.0 29.2 29.1 1.6 71.8 66.9 26.3 27.6 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 28.7 28.3 28.7 1.0 63.6 60.8 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 28.9 29.2 29.5 1.7 72.7 67.4 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 21.7 22.5 27.2 2.2 79.1 71.7 18.9 20.2 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 29.5 30.2 28.0 2.1 77.7 70.7 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 28.2 29.5 25.9 2.5 84.3 75.5 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 27.6 28.0 28.5 0.9 61.9 59.5 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 17.4 18.0 25.6 1.8 74.8 68.3 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 29.2 29.9 28.7 2.2 79.5 71.8 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 28.7 29.3 26.7 2.0 76.0 69.3 25.7 27.1 28.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 29.0 29.9 28.2 2.3 79.4 72.1 25.9 27.3 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 28.1 29.1 27.4 2.4 80.8 73.1 25.2 26.5 27.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 29.4 30.8 27.8 2.7 84.9 76.5 26.3 27.6 28.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 27.6 28.1 27.1 1.0 63.9 60.5 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 30.0 30.9 29.5 2.6 83.9 75.4 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 30.0 31.4 28.0 2.7 84.1 75.6 26.8 28.2 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 27.2 27.8 28.6 1.2 65.2 62.0 25.5 26.7 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 27.9 27.9 25.4 1.5 70.1 64.9 25.0 26.4 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 28.3 28.0 28.9 1.2 65.9 62.5 25.7 26.9 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 23.7 23.7 23.0 1.3 68.2 63.4 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 29.0 29.4 29.2 1.8 74.7 68.8 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 28.6 28.4 28.4 1.2 65.4 62.2 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 28.6 28.6 29.1 1.5 69.6 65.2 25.9 27.2 28.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 28.2 28.2 27.4 1.4 68.9 64.3 25.5 26.8 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 29.0 29.3 27.8 1.6 72.5 67.3 26.3 27.5 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 29.1 30.5 27.1 2.8 85.0 76.9 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 28.5 28.6 28.3 1.5 70.8 66.1 25.9 27.1 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 30.1 31.0 28.3 2.5 82.8 74.5 27.4 28.6 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 23.3 23.3 24.5 1.4 69.0 64.1 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 28.6 28.3 28.8 1.1 65.3 62.1 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------