***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 29.0 29.1 28.8 2.4 76.0 74.9 25.7 27.0 28.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 27.9 28.1 28.6 1.8 69.5 68.7 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 28.4 28.5 28.7 2.2 73.0 72.1 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 21.7 22.1 26.0 2.6 78.8 77.4 18.2 19.6 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 29.0 29.2 27.1 2.5 76.4 75.3 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 27.5 27.8 24.5 2.4 78.0 76.6 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 27.9 28.1 28.5 1.9 70.2 69.4 24.7 26.2 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 16.5 16.6 24.0 1.7 69.7 68.9 13.6 15.0 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 28.8 29.1 28.1 2.7 78.5 77.4 24.7 26.3 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 28.0 28.2 25.5 2.1 73.1 72.2 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 28.7 29.0 27.3 2.5 76.7 75.5 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 27.5 27.8 25.7 2.2 75.3 74.0 24.3 25.7 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 28.8 29.5 27.0 2.8 80.9 78.9 25.2 26.6 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 28.1 28.1 26.9 1.9 70.3 69.8 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 29.9 30.8 29.2 3.1 84.5 82.9 26.0 27.5 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 29.6 30.2 27.0 2.8 80.3 78.5 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 28.0 28.0 28.6 2.2 73.2 72.1 24.4 25.9 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 27.1 27.1 24.1 1.6 67.6 67.1 24.0 25.5 27.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 27.6 27.7 28.6 2.0 70.6 69.8 24.3 25.9 27.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 21.4 22.3 21.7 1.2 64.3 63.9 19.6 21.1 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 28.7 28.7 28.6 2.3 74.6 73.7 24.8 26.4 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 28.5 28.5 28.4 2.2 74.1 73.2 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 28.3 28.3 28.6 2.3 73.4 72.5 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 27.6 27.6 26.7 1.8 69.6 69.0 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 28.9 29.0 27.7 2.4 76.3 75.4 24.9 26.5 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 28.0 28.2 24.9 2.1 75.0 73.5 24.9 26.2 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 28.3 28.4 28.2 2.4 76.2 75.2 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 29.8 30.4 27.3 2.8 81.3 79.8 25.9 27.4 28.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 45 55 100 22.3 22.4 23.2 1.5 67.0 66.5 19.3 20.8 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 27.9 28.1 28.6 1.9 70.3 69.5 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------