***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 72.9 44.9 110.5 65.0 54.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 64.4 73.2 47.7 119.3 68.9 55.1 46.8 58.3 70.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 42.2 71.8 43.1 103.4 61.2 51.5 43.0 59.2 78.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 63.7 75.7 49.1 113.4 66.5 54.8 37.3 54.6 75.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 66.1 75.0 50.2 111.8 65.8 53.8 40.9 57.1 75.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 54.5 64.6 64.2 115.1 67.0 56.9 32.8 46.7 63.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 62.0 73.0 48.5 120.2 69.2 57.0 41.8 54.9 69.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 97.6 98.4 48.2 97.4 58.3 49.9 65.0 86.5 110.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 59.4 66.4 50.0 108.1 64.0 53.2 36.2 51.3 68.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 83.5 84.0 52.0 98.3 58.7 49.8 52.4 72.3 95.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 57.0 64.9 45.4 110.4 65.2 52.9 35.8 49.6 65.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 54.8 61.0 41.4 106.6 63.3 53.0 31.8 46.4 64.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 44.1 52.5 51.6 115.8 67.4 56.9 26.9 38.0 51.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 59.6 88.3 51.5 97.2 57.3 48.8 60.2 79.2 100.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 42.2 47.5 38.7 104.1 63.1 52.8 22.3 35.0 50.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 47.8 56.6 49.8 116.3 67.7 55.5 30.3 41.7 54.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 37.9 66.6 49.7 123.9 70.9 56.6 38.7 49.9 62.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 74.8 71.7 56.3 91.9 54.9 48.0 50.3 66.5 84.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 66.7 74.9 46.1 114.4 66.6 53.3 45.0 59.1 74.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 68.8 63.7 55.7 89.6 52.4 46.9 47.0 61.5 77.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 66.2 73.4 44.6 107.8 63.9 53.3 40.3 56.8 76.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 40.8 77.7 48.0 119.4 68.9 53.5 41.5 56.8 74.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 69.3 72.5 44.8 105.4 62.2 51.0 50.9 63.0 75.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 57.0 85.6 50.0 94.7 56.4 48.6 57.4 77.3 100.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 60.6 68.1 54.0 111.4 65.3 55.1 38.6 52.7 68.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 43.0 49.4 40.3 112.6 66.2 56.4 26.0 36.8 49.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 70.7 77.9 52.1 109.6 64.4 54.2 47.1 62.5 79.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 42.8 50.3 45.2 111.1 65.7 54.0 23.5 35.6 50.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 96.7 91.2 55.9 90.8 53.8 47.6 64.9 85.8 109.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 66.9 74.1 46.3 114.0 66.4 54.2 47.8 60.1 73.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------