***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 16.5 12.3 143.0 76.1 52.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.4 21.1 14.4 165.0 80.3 52.4 4.3 8.1 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.1 19.2 12.6 144.0 76.1 53.1 5.0 9.0 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.5 17.6 13.9 143.5 76.2 54.0 4.0 7.7 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.9 14.8 13.8 138.8 75.2 55.4 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.1 15.1 18.9 136.1 74.6 55.1 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 5.9 23.7 13.6 152.4 78.0 50.9 5.6 10.2 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.7 23.7 14.0 113.6 69.2 56.1 8.3 14.1 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.0 16.9 13.5 133.9 74.1 55.6 3.1 6.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.5 21.9 14.7 118.4 70.3 55.7 6.1 11.7 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.8 13.6 12.5 129.1 73.3 55.4 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.4 14.5 11.7 124.4 72.0 54.0 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.1 12.2 15.1 142.3 76.0 55.2 2.9 5.5 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.5 23.5 16.0 125.8 72.0 52.3 5.7 11.4 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.5 16.3 11.4 139.9 75.5 50.7 2.3 5.5 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.6 14.8 14.3 140.1 75.6 54.6 3.1 6.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.3 21.1 14.2 151.3 77.7 51.4 3.9 8.1 14.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.8 19.5 16.5 111.1 68.0 54.2 6.4 11.5 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.7 22.1 14.6 165.4 80.3 52.7 4.8 8.7 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 15.2 19.0 16.9 104.6 66.3 56.2 7.4 12.4 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.7 21.5 11.9 138.3 75.0 54.3 4.3 9.0 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.0 23.2 14.8 154.0 78.2 52.7 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 5.7 26.1 14.4 152.5 77.9 51.8 6.0 11.2 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.2 20.0 14.8 121.6 70.8 52.7 5.6 10.5 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.7 16.5 15.3 140.6 75.5 53.9 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.8 11.6 12.3 145.2 76.6 55.6 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 6.0 23.0 14.9 140.6 75.5 52.0 5.7 10.5 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.0 18.0 13.2 144.7 76.5 52.2 3.6 7.2 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.5 24.9 16.7 109.3 67.4 54.5 7.3 14.1 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 5.7 20.4 13.9 159.3 79.2 52.1 5.9 9.6 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------