***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 80.7 108.9 75.8 182.2 86.4 78.1 39.4 54.3 72.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 76.8 88.5 65.9 157.3 81.5 73.2 45.7 57.6 71.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 94.8 120.2 76.0 178.1 85.2 78.4 46.4 63.6 83.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 88.7 119.4 85.4 184.7 86.6 79.7 39.7 56.7 76.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 87.7 110.4 81.9 172.0 84.4 77.6 42.9 59.1 77.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 73.2 86.3 91.2 156.5 80.8 76.1 32.9 47.1 63.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 77.5 90.0 66.2 151.3 80.3 71.1 41.5 55.1 70.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 117.2 132.2 79.1 146.1 78.4 73.3 63.6 84.6 107.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 79.9 97.7 81.9 165.3 82.6 75.9 39.1 54.0 71.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 105.2 122.3 88.8 152.2 79.9 74.0 55.3 74.8 96.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 76.1 91.0 71.7 164.5 82.3 76.5 37.4 51.5 67.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 75.9 89.6 63.6 157.7 80.9 76.4 32.1 47.1 65.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 61.2 72.5 73.7 160.2 81.5 77.3 27.6 39.3 52.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 115.8 132.7 89.1 155.8 81.2 76.2 62.5 82.1 103.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 62.6 92.6 83.3 195.5 88.2 81.6 23.2 36.0 51.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 62.8 74.0 72.5 162.3 81.9 77.1 30.8 42.2 55.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 64.9 69.6 56.7 131.6 73.9 65.5 35.3 47.4 60.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 93.5 106.9 100.5 146.6 78.9 73.1 50.3 67.3 86.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 85.1 102.7 67.5 163.7 82.7 75.4 45.3 60.3 77.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 87.4 97.9 95.0 141.1 77.8 72.5 47.7 63.2 80.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 88.1 112.7 77.2 180.1 85.1 78.3 41.7 57.7 76.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 77.3 87.2 58.9 141.5 76.8 70.0 40.8 55.3 72.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 85.2 100.5 71.2 167.3 83.4 77.2 51.5 64.6 78.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 114.3 136.2 91.8 159.8 81.7 76.2 58.1 78.7 102.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 83.7 109.7 90.6 180.4 87.0 78.5 39.8 54.7 72.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 61.4 75.2 62.7 169.6 83.9 79.9 26.2 37.8 51.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 92.4 118.6 86.1 175.4 86.1 77.2 47.4 63.7 81.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 60.2 83.0 80.9 180.6 85.7 79.2 23.8 36.2 51.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 120.4 137.9 98.8 142.8 78.2 72.5 65.8 87.6 112.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 82.8 97.7 70.3 166.8 83.6 75.5 49.3 62.1 75.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------