***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 15.6 15.0 18.3 -0.3 42.7 43.7 14.5 15.3 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.7 18.5 -0.2 45.5 46.1 14.0 14.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 15.9 16.3 18.1 -0.5 38.3 40.5 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 10.9 11.0 16.2 -0.9 29.7 34.3 11.2 12.1 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 12.7 12.9 16.0 -0.7 33.9 37.8 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 11.5 11.9 14.6 -0.6 35.3 39.2 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.1 18.7 -0.1 47.6 47.6 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.7 7.0 14.2 -0.6 34.8 39.1 6.9 7.7 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 14.0 14.2 16.2 -0.6 35.1 38.7 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 13.7 14.1 14.7 -0.6 36.1 39.8 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 13.7 14.0 15.7 -0.5 37.1 40.5 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 11.3 11.7 15.2 -0.6 34.0 38.3 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 12.6 13.1 14.8 -0.6 34.6 38.1 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 14.6 14.9 16.2 -0.6 36.5 39.9 14.8 15.5 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 15.1 15.2 16.6 -1.1 25.4 30.6 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 13.9 14.3 15.6 -0.6 34.8 38.6 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.6 18.2 0.0 49.9 49.4 14.8 15.6 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 12.0 12.5 14.0 -0.5 37.4 40.7 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 14.0 14.6 18.3 -0.3 42.8 44.2 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 7.8 8.4 12.4 -0.5 36.8 40.5 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.0 17.3 -0.6 35.4 38.7 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 13.8 14.6 18.0 -0.2 46.0 46.7 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 13.5 14.0 17.8 -0.5 38.8 41.3 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 14.2 14.6 16.0 -0.6 36.2 39.4 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.2 14.3 16.6 -0.5 38.2 40.5 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 12.4 12.6 14.6 -0.8 29.2 33.1 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.2 17.5 -0.3 42.8 43.8 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 12.8 12.9 16.5 -1.0 27.5 32.5 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 10.8 11.4 13.5 -0.4 39.6 42.3 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.0 18.6 -0.3 43.7 44.7 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------