***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 24.6 38.5 31.6 210.6 86.9 79.3 5.9 11.4 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 26.8 41.2 25.1 201.2 85.4 74.8 7.6 13.8 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 29.9 46.0 27.5 191.4 84.2 75.4 5.8 12.6 22.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 27.2 36.7 25.8 173.9 81.7 73.5 5.1 11.1 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 28.2 39.7 27.9 184.2 83.0 76.3 5.4 11.5 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 25.3 32.8 28.3 169.0 81.4 76.1 6.0 11.6 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 27.7 40.5 24.6 194.7 84.7 75.4 7.0 13.5 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 34.4 43.8 32.9 168.1 80.8 74.5 9.4 17.2 27.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 27.1 39.1 30.6 198.7 85.0 77.8 6.8 12.6 20.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 36.9 49.7 35.3 180.8 82.8 75.7 9.8 18.1 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 23.6 31.1 26.5 168.0 80.6 74.0 5.6 11.0 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 17.9 23.2 25.5 168.2 80.8 74.8 4.5 8.5 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 21.7 29.4 26.3 173.7 81.6 73.8 4.8 9.7 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 36.9 52.6 37.1 192.8 84.7 74.6 12.0 20.2 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 16.6 22.6 21.5 168.5 80.6 70.4 3.3 7.0 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 19.9 25.1 24.5 165.6 80.3 73.6 5.4 10.0 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 17.6 24.9 23.3 185.0 83.3 71.6 4.7 8.6 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 27.1 36.8 37.9 186.2 84.3 76.3 7.7 13.6 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 29.3 45.6 25.0 193.1 84.3 74.0 6.8 13.7 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 25.7 32.2 35.1 164.8 80.5 73.0 7.4 13.3 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 23.1 33.4 30.0 200.2 85.3 77.9 6.7 11.8 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 19.6 26.7 21.7 173.8 81.5 70.7 5.3 10.1 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 22.5 32.9 25.6 178.4 82.3 72.8 5.6 11.1 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 40.1 58.1 34.7 201.2 85.9 76.1 11.9 20.7 32.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 27.4 41.6 33.2 206.4 85.8 79.0 6.8 12.9 21.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 19.0 19.7 16.4 122.7 71.1 64.3 4.4 9.3 16.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 29.7 44.2 32.9 205.5 86.0 79.1 8.4 14.8 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 20.0 26.4 25.8 174.4 81.8 72.6 5.0 9.6 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 34.3 46.3 36.5 175.1 82.3 74.3 8.9 16.7 27.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 26.4 41.1 25.8 201.1 85.5 75.6 6.7 12.9 21.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------