***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 4.7 12.9 8.7 83.9 60.7 38.9 5.4 9.4 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 5.9 13.7 9.3 82.2 58.8 37.7 6.4 10.8 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 6.1 18.5 9.5 87.7 61.0 38.1 7.2 13.2 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.5 16.7 13.3 118.8 70.1 49.0 4.2 8.4 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.2 17.7 13.8 116.7 69.5 48.2 3.8 8.4 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.2 9.5 21.0 119.7 70.4 52.5 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 5.0 12.2 8.8 77.0 57.1 37.2 5.4 9.7 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.3 23.9 18.5 128.5 72.6 52.9 4.8 10.4 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.0 13.7 13.8 111.7 68.1 45.5 2.7 6.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.6 20.6 18.2 119.4 70.0 49.6 4.0 9.3 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.5 16.7 13.1 130.8 73.2 50.4 3.2 6.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.2 14.9 13.2 130.5 73.3 50.9 2.8 6.2 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.8 11.3 15.5 126.6 72.3 51.6 2.6 5.1 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 8.4 21.8 14.5 95.3 62.3 41.5 9.0 15.5 24.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.6 9.4 11.5 114.7 68.5 45.7 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.9 10.2 13.8 121.5 70.9 50.9 2.4 5.0 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 5.9 13.6 8.5 76.3 56.7 36.1 6.1 11.1 17.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.4 18.6 21.2 116.4 68.7 50.8 4.6 9.5 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 5.8 14.4 9.5 86.4 60.1 37.9 6.7 11.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.4 16.9 24.8 127.7 72.2 56.9 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 4.7 16.1 10.2 94.4 62.9 38.5 5.2 10.2 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 5.9 13.4 9.4 77.1 56.2 36.1 6.5 11.3 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 6.3 19.5 10.2 91.0 61.8 37.9 7.3 13.6 22.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 8.8 24.9 15.3 101.4 64.1 43.3 9.3 16.5 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 5.3 13.5 11.8 90.2 61.1 42.1 5.9 10.1 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.2 13.9 12.8 136.7 74.6 52.5 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 4.8 13.2 10.6 80.9 58.5 39.5 5.3 10.1 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.9 8.9 13.3 120.3 70.6 48.0 2.9 5.0 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.6 27.4 21.9 124.2 71.0 52.4 7.9 14.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 8.1 16.5 9.3 83.2 59.5 38.0 9.3 13.7 18.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------