***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 29.6 30.7 32.1 2.7 84.2 76.5 26.9 28.1 29.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 29.4 30.2 32.3 2.6 81.5 74.0 26.8 27.9 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 29.3 30.1 31.9 2.4 80.9 73.8 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 22.6 23.2 29.9 2.1 79.2 72.3 19.7 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 29.9 30.6 29.8 2.1 79.5 72.6 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 28.7 29.7 27.3 2.0 81.7 73.8 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 29.2 30.1 32.2 2.6 81.7 73.9 26.6 27.8 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 17.7 18.7 28.0 2.3 82.1 74.8 15.0 16.2 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 29.4 30.1 30.1 2.2 80.1 73.0 26.8 28.0 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 29.1 29.8 28.5 2.1 79.7 72.7 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 29.6 30.4 29.3 2.3 81.9 74.8 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 28.8 29.8 29.4 2.5 84.6 77.2 26.0 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 29.9 30.9 28.7 2.3 82.9 75.6 27.0 28.3 29.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 28.9 29.3 29.4 2.1 77.2 70.4 26.7 27.7 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 30.5 31.3 30.6 2.2 81.1 73.6 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 30.6 31.5 29.2 2.2 81.7 74.7 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 28.8 29.4 31.7 2.4 78.0 70.8 26.2 27.4 28.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 28.1 28.7 27.6 1.9 76.8 70.3 25.7 26.8 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 28.9 29.8 32.3 2.7 81.9 74.4 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 23.9 24.6 25.4 1.8 76.8 70.4 21.3 22.5 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 29.5 30.2 31.1 2.4 81.0 73.9 26.8 28.0 29.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 29.4 29.9 31.5 2.4 78.5 71.0 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 29.1 29.9 31.8 2.6 81.9 74.5 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 28.6 29.1 29.5 2.1 77.6 70.9 26.3 27.3 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 29.7 30.6 30.2 2.5 82.6 75.1 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 29.6 30.8 29.0 2.4 85.1 77.2 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 29.1 30.1 31.1 2.7 84.3 76.4 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 30.6 31.3 30.3 2.1 79.9 72.9 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 23.6 24.1 26.5 1.8 75.5 69.3 21.0 22.2 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 29.2 30.1 32.4 2.7 82.4 74.8 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------