***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 27.1 28.3 27.5 -0.1 48.7 48.0 27.2 28.3 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 28.5 28.2 27.9 0.2 52.8 51.0 27.0 28.1 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 28.6 28.0 27.8 -0.1 48.1 47.6 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 21.4 20.9 25.8 0.0 50.1 48.9 19.6 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 29.1 28.5 26.0 -0.1 48.3 47.8 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 27.6 27.3 23.9 0.2 52.9 51.2 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 28.3 28.2 27.9 0.3 53.9 51.7 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.9 16.7 24.5 0.2 52.8 51.1 15.2 16.5 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 26.6 28.0 26.1 -0.1 48.3 47.8 26.8 28.1 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 28.3 27.8 25.0 0.1 51.0 49.8 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.2 25.8 0.1 51.8 50.5 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 27.7 27.4 25.7 0.2 52.8 51.0 25.9 27.2 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.5 24.8 0.2 52.1 50.6 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 28.2 27.8 25.9 0.1 51.6 50.3 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 29.4 29.0 27.0 0.0 50.5 49.1 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.2 25.5 0.2 52.7 51.1 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 27.8 27.9 28.0 0.5 57.0 54.2 26.4 27.4 28.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 27.6 27.2 24.4 0.1 51.6 50.2 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 28.1 27.8 27.9 0.1 51.7 50.1 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 23.3 23.1 22.3 0.3 54.1 52.0 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 26.7 28.0 27.0 -0.3 46.3 46.4 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 28.3 28.3 27.7 0.5 56.5 53.7 26.9 28.0 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 28.3 28.0 27.8 0.2 52.1 50.5 26.8 27.8 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.9 27.5 25.9 0.0 50.2 49.2 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 26.7 27.9 25.7 -0.2 46.9 46.8 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 28.5 28.5 25.6 0.5 57.3 54.4 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 28.3 27.8 26.6 0.0 49.5 48.6 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 29.5 29.1 26.3 0.1 50.9 49.5 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.9 22.5 23.5 0.2 52.3 50.7 21.1 22.3 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 28.3 27.9 27.8 0.1 50.9 49.5 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------