***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 28.5 29.5 28.8 2.2 89.0 80.2 27.0 27.6 28.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 28.4 29.8 29.3 2.8 92.3 84.9 26.4 27.2 27.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 28.3 29.4 28.9 2.1 87.2 78.7 26.3 27.2 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 21.4 22.2 26.0 1.6 83.1 74.1 19.4 20.3 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 28.8 29.4 26.4 1.4 79.9 71.6 26.8 27.7 28.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 26.6 26.9 23.2 0.5 62.8 59.5 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 28.1 29.3 29.0 2.4 89.7 81.8 26.2 27.0 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 16.6 16.8 24.0 0.9 71.2 65.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 28.3 29.3 27.1 1.7 84.4 75.2 26.2 27.2 28.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 28.0 28.4 25.1 1.2 76.1 68.6 26.1 27.0 27.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 28.4 29.1 26.4 1.4 80.0 72.0 26.4 27.3 28.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 27.4 27.7 25.4 1.1 74.5 68.1 25.6 26.5 27.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 27.9 28.4 24.8 0.7 66.1 62.1 26.7 27.6 28.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 27.8 28.3 26.2 1.4 78.8 71.1 26.1 26.9 27.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 29.4 30.6 28.1 2.0 88.6 79.4 27.5 28.3 29.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 29.3 29.6 25.7 1.2 74.9 68.3 27.2 28.2 29.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 27.8 29.3 29.0 2.8 92.4 85.1 25.7 26.5 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 26.6 27.3 24.0 0.9 69.9 63.6 25.4 26.3 27.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 28.0 29.5 29.4 2.8 93.1 85.5 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 22.3 22.5 21.3 0.4 59.8 56.6 21.0 21.9 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 28.4 29.1 27.9 1.6 81.5 73.1 26.4 27.3 28.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 28.2 29.8 28.7 2.7 92.3 84.1 26.1 27.0 27.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 28.2 29.7 29.2 2.8 93.0 85.2 26.1 27.0 27.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 27.5 28.1 26.3 1.3 78.0 70.4 25.7 26.6 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 28.5 29.2 26.8 1.6 81.6 73.3 26.5 27.4 28.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 28.2 28.3 24.7 1.0 72.0 67.4 26.3 27.1 27.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 28.0 28.9 27.7 1.9 86.0 77.0 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 29.5 30.2 26.6 1.6 82.4 73.7 27.5 28.3 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 21.9 22.3 22.9 0.6 64.6 59.8 20.6 21.6 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 28.1 29.4 29.2 2.5 90.9 82.9 26.2 27.0 27.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------