***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 30.1 30.4 29.2 1.9 73.2 65.3 27.9 28.9 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 29.6 30.1 29.5 2.1 75.7 66.8 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 29.9 30.3 29.6 2.0 74.4 65.9 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 23.3 23.4 27.1 1.5 69.2 62.2 20.1 21.7 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 30.8 30.8 27.4 1.5 69.0 61.9 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 28.3 29.1 24.8 1.3 67.0 60.4 26.2 27.7 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 29.5 29.9 29.4 2.0 74.7 66.4 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 15.3 18.0 25.3 1.1 64.1 58.3 15.6 16.9 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 30.2 30.4 27.7 1.7 71.1 63.3 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 29.1 29.9 26.2 1.4 67.6 60.7 27.1 28.5 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 29.4 30.3 27.0 1.4 67.7 60.8 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 26.3 29.2 26.6 1.3 65.9 59.5 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 30.7 30.5 25.9 1.3 66.2 60.0 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 28.5 29.5 27.1 1.6 70.0 62.4 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 31.2 31.5 28.4 1.7 72.9 64.7 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 31.3 31.2 26.7 1.4 67.9 61.0 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 28.9 29.3 29.2 2.0 74.6 66.2 26.5 27.6 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 26.0 28.8 25.3 1.2 65.2 59.0 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 29.3 29.9 29.6 2.2 76.5 67.3 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 21.5 24.1 22.6 0.8 59.9 55.7 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 30.2 30.4 28.6 1.7 70.9 63.5 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 29.6 30.0 29.0 2.1 75.4 66.4 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 29.4 30.1 29.5 2.3 77.1 67.6 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 29.2 29.2 27.1 1.5 69.0 61.7 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 30.1 30.2 27.4 1.6 70.2 63.1 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 30.2 30.2 26.5 1.6 69.7 62.5 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 29.5 29.6 28.2 1.6 71.0 63.8 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 30.3 31.3 27.5 1.5 69.3 62.1 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 21.2 23.7 24.1 0.9 62.0 56.8 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 29.4 29.9 29.5 2.1 75.2 66.5 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------