***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 16.0 17.0 18.7 2.0 86.8 75.9 14.2 14.9 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 16.2 17.5 18.8 2.1 87.2 75.7 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 18.0 19.5 19.1 2.2 89.8 78.0 15.7 16.7 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 13.3 14.3 16.1 1.7 84.2 73.8 10.7 11.8 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 14.4 15.4 16.0 1.7 85.5 74.6 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 13.5 14.4 14.1 1.8 87.1 77.1 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 16.1 17.2 18.8 2.1 86.9 75.5 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 8.8 9.7 13.5 1.6 82.4 73.4 6.7 7.7 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 15.7 16.7 16.3 1.8 87.3 76.0 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 15.6 16.3 14.5 1.6 84.0 74.1 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 15.4 16.2 15.4 1.7 84.7 74.6 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 13.5 14.3 14.4 1.7 84.1 74.9 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 14.9 15.7 14.1 1.7 85.2 75.7 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 16.5 17.6 16.4 1.9 87.2 76.3 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 16.7 17.5 17.5 1.8 85.7 75.4 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 15.8 16.8 14.9 1.7 85.4 75.4 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 16.6 17.6 18.5 2.0 86.2 74.8 14.5 15.4 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 14.4 15.1 13.6 1.5 83.4 73.9 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 16.0 17.2 18.8 2.2 88.4 76.9 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 10.2 10.7 11.3 1.4 80.7 72.2 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 15.5 16.6 17.8 1.9 87.7 76.5 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 15.6 16.7 18.4 2.1 88.1 77.0 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 15.6 17.1 18.7 2.3 90.3 78.8 13.4 14.4 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 16.0 17.3 16.1 1.8 87.0 76.3 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 15.5 16.2 17.0 1.8 83.5 73.6 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 14.6 15.6 14.0 1.8 87.2 77.5 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 15.6 16.6 17.8 1.8 84.4 74.1 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 14.5 15.3 16.4 1.7 85.0 74.9 12.7 13.4 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 13.0 13.7 12.9 1.5 82.3 72.9 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 16.3 17.6 19.0 2.1 88.0 76.5 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------