***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 27.9 27.6 -0.3 44.8 46.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 27.0 27.8 27.4 -0.7 39.4 42.1 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 27.1 28.1 27.7 -0.4 44.5 46.4 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 19.8 21.1 26.3 -0.5 42.5 44.9 20.2 21.7 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 27.5 28.6 26.0 -0.5 42.3 44.9 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 28.2 27.5 24.1 -0.1 48.0 49.0 26.3 27.6 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 26.7 27.6 27.2 -0.7 39.2 41.9 27.1 28.3 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 17.5 16.3 24.1 -0.6 41.8 44.7 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 27.0 28.0 26.2 -0.5 42.3 45.0 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 29.0 27.8 24.8 -0.6 41.8 44.7 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.3 25.6 -0.4 44.8 46.7 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 26.3 27.4 25.4 -0.4 44.6 46.5 26.5 27.9 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 27.4 28.8 25.1 -0.2 46.7 48.0 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 26.7 27.5 25.6 -0.7 40.2 43.6 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 28.0 29.2 27.2 -0.3 45.8 47.2 28.2 29.6 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 30.2 29.3 25.6 -0.3 46.0 47.5 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 26.2 26.8 26.8 -0.9 37.0 39.9 26.6 27.6 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 28.2 26.9 23.9 -0.6 41.2 44.5 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 26.6 27.4 27.5 -0.7 40.6 43.2 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 21.6 22.5 21.8 -0.6 40.7 44.1 21.8 23.2 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 27.1 28.2 27.2 -0.4 43.4 45.7 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 26.8 27.5 26.9 -0.8 39.1 41.7 27.1 28.3 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 26.8 27.6 27.3 -0.6 41.5 44.2 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 28.4 27.3 25.6 -0.5 42.1 45.1 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 27.1 28.2 26.2 -0.4 43.9 45.9 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 27.1 28.1 25.0 -0.4 44.0 46.1 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 26.7 27.8 26.7 -0.4 44.6 46.3 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 27.9 29.1 26.7 -0.4 44.2 46.1 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 23.4 22.1 22.8 -0.6 41.2 44.5 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 26.8 27.7 27.6 -0.6 41.4 43.7 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------