***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 4.9 9.3 7.1 58.6 49.6 34.4 5.4 9.4 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 6.5 12.5 9.7 74.5 55.5 40.7 6.4 10.8 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 7.1 13.6 8.8 65.5 50.9 36.6 7.2 13.2 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 3.8 6.2 7.4 53.6 42.3 33.0 4.2 8.4 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.8 5.7 7.7 49.3 41.7 32.3 3.8 8.4 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 1.9 4.0 14.5 67.4 48.3 35.3 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.9 10.7 9.3 70.0 52.6 39.5 5.4 9.7 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 4.9 7.9 10.6 57.3 43.4 34.3 4.8 10.4 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.7 4.4 8.0 46.6 41.4 31.3 2.7 6.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 4.2 6.6 10.7 53.2 42.9 33.9 4.0 9.3 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.2 4.7 6.8 49.2 41.0 31.0 3.2 6.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 2.9 4.6 7.1 52.4 42.5 32.2 2.8 6.2 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.3 4.4 9.8 62.0 46.2 33.9 2.6 5.1 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 8.3 15.8 13.5 66.3 50.7 37.8 9.0 15.5 24.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.3 3.2 5.2 45.9 38.9 30.1 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 2.4 4.4 8.2 60.4 46.8 34.1 2.4 5.0 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 6.7 12.4 9.2 72.1 53.6 40.5 6.1 11.1 17.9 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.5 7.9 14.0 59.1 45.6 36.2 4.6 9.5 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 6.3 13.1 9.8 75.5 56.5 40.6 6.7 11.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 4.2 8.8 16.1 75.1 51.1 39.6 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 4.9 7.9 6.7 48.1 43.0 31.2 5.2 10.2 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 7.0 12.4 8.9 70.2 53.5 41.0 6.5 11.3 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 6.9 15.9 10.3 70.8 55.0 38.9 7.3 13.6 22.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 9.0 15.8 12.4 61.6 48.4 37.4 9.3 16.5 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 5.5 8.3 8.1 50.9 43.6 33.2 5.9 10.1 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.1 6.7 8.8 72.8 53.1 38.0 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 5.4 9.3 8.5 56.3 47.3 34.6 5.3 10.1 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.7 4.3 7.2 57.1 45.0 33.9 2.9 5.0 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 7.4 13.5 14.3 64.3 47.3 36.9 7.9 14.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 9.0 14.9 9.3 72.0 54.3 39.3 9.3 13.7 18.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------