***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 5.0 9.4 8.3 56.5 41.9 28.2 6.4 12.6 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 8.1 12.6 8.1 56.4 40.1 28.8 10.0 16.6 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 6.9 10.7 7.7 53.8 39.6 29.1 7.9 15.7 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 7.7 13.8 10.1 63.4 43.4 33.2 9.5 16.8 26.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 5.7 7.9 8.8 53.1 36.0 28.9 7.1 12.8 20.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 17.8 12.1 11.3 65.6 45.1 39.3 8.1 13.9 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 6.3 11.1 8.2 60.4 43.9 30.9 7.9 13.3 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 10.5 14.2 11.5 62.3 42.5 36.5 10.5 17.6 26.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 5.0 8.5 10.6 62.4 41.8 34.1 5.8 11.6 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 6.8 9.4 11.1 56.9 38.5 32.0 7.5 13.7 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 5.8 7.8 7.0 49.1 35.8 28.8 7.1 12.1 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 5.4 7.4 8.7 57.9 41.4 35.1 5.4 10.1 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 4.6 5.8 7.7 46.7 33.8 28.5 5.6 10.5 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 6.4 8.5 9.4 48.8 34.3 29.0 8.1 14.0 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 3.3 5.2 7.5 53.7 38.4 30.4 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 4.4 6.0 8.1 53.3 38.5 32.2 4.9 8.8 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 6.5 11.1 7.5 52.6 40.1 28.6 8.5 15.4 24.5 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 7.0 9.8 13.1 59.2 39.6 34.7 7.6 13.5 21.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 8.3 12.2 7.8 52.8 38.2 28.6 10.2 17.7 27.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.3 10.1 14.2 65.4 43.1 38.0 6.9 12.8 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 6.2 10.3 8.8 57.4 40.2 29.4 8.1 14.0 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 7.7 11.4 7.6 50.4 37.9 28.9 9.8 16.3 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 6.1 8.5 7.7 48.6 37.6 29.1 7.1 13.0 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 6.6 9.9 10.3 53.6 37.0 31.2 8.5 15.1 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 4.5 7.3 8.7 49.9 33.3 24.4 7.1 13.1 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 4.3 5.6 9.3 57.4 39.9 35.8 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 4.3 7.8 8.8 52.5 38.4 26.8 6.1 12.0 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 4.4 7.2 8.4 54.9 39.6 31.3 5.5 10.4 17.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 10.5 14.5 13.2 62.1 41.5 36.6 10.9 18.8 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 9.1 14.7 8.0 57.3 41.1 29.1 11.4 18.6 27.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------