***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 28.9 29.7 29.0 2.3 80.0 76.5 24.8 26.5 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 28.4 29.5 29.7 2.7 82.5 78.0 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 28.2 28.8 28.8 2.1 76.9 73.6 24.5 26.1 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 21.2 21.6 25.9 1.8 75.2 72.5 17.9 19.4 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 28.4 28.6 26.5 1.6 71.2 69.1 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 25.4 26.2 23.1 0.9 63.0 62.1 23.7 25.1 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 28.0 29.1 29.6 2.8 83.0 78.7 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 16.2 16.2 24.1 1.3 68.2 66.8 13.0 14.5 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 27.9 28.2 27.6 1.8 74.0 71.5 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 27.5 27.6 25.4 1.5 70.4 68.5 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 28.2 28.3 26.1 1.5 70.9 69.1 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 27.2 27.3 25.4 1.7 72.8 71.1 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 28.3 28.3 25.4 1.6 70.7 69.3 24.9 26.5 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 27.6 28.0 26.9 1.7 72.6 69.7 24.2 25.8 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 28.9 29.6 28.2 2.0 77.7 74.9 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 28.9 29.0 25.9 1.6 71.6 69.9 25.5 27.0 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 27.6 28.4 29.0 2.4 78.8 74.8 24.0 25.6 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 26.8 26.9 24.4 1.4 68.4 66.7 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 27.7 28.6 29.3 2.5 80.1 76.0 24.0 25.6 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 21.2 22.1 21.8 1.1 64.3 63.4 19.1 20.7 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 28.2 28.5 28.5 1.9 74.8 72.1 24.5 26.1 27.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 28.0 28.5 28.4 2.1 76.1 72.3 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 27.9 28.6 28.6 2.2 77.3 73.5 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 27.1 27.4 26.7 1.6 71.2 68.9 23.8 25.4 26.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 28.5 28.9 27.4 2.0 76.4 73.4 24.9 26.4 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 27.8 27.9 24.5 1.6 71.5 70.0 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 28.1 28.8 28.3 2.3 79.5 76.2 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 29.0 29.4 26.9 1.8 75.8 73.2 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 22.1 22.1 23.5 1.3 67.3 65.8 18.7 20.4 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 28.0 29.1 29.7 2.7 82.6 78.3 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------