***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 17.5 26.7 19.6 118.7 69.5 58.1 6.5 13.5 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 18.3 20.8 13.7 94.5 62.2 50.9 7.9 14.5 23.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 29.5 36.3 21.9 142.2 75.5 64.7 9.8 17.3 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 32.6 46.3 29.6 177.7 83.2 74.8 8.0 15.3 25.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 23.4 33.7 29.1 182.7 83.4 72.3 7.9 13.6 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 30.0 42.8 38.7 198.2 86.8 80.9 8.6 14.8 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 7.7 15.4 12.7 84.2 58.5 45.4 7.3 12.4 18.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 33.7 55.0 45.8 225.2 90.6 82.2 10.8 17.7 26.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 27.0 38.7 31.4 178.7 83.1 71.5 7.7 14.0 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 29.4 50.5 44.6 212.2 88.8 78.3 7.8 14.4 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 23.6 38.1 35.2 224.2 88.9 77.1 7.4 12.7 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 22.8 40.7 37.1 231.5 90.2 81.8 5.0 9.8 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 22.1 35.6 30.0 199.8 86.0 76.3 5.1 10.2 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 27.1 37.7 33.7 173.8 82.6 71.6 8.3 14.7 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 22.3 35.1 26.0 197.5 84.2 72.2 3.9 9.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 19.3 31.1 31.1 206.7 87.3 77.3 4.7 8.9 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 7.1 15.9 11.8 84.2 58.7 47.0 6.4 12.1 19.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 27.6 45.9 47.8 216.6 90.3 81.1 9.4 15.3 22.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 19.3 26.0 16.7 112.2 67.6 56.7 8.7 15.7 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 29.5 52.4 48.5 232.1 91.8 85.0 7.9 13.9 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 23.3 29.7 26.2 157.2 78.9 67.2 7.8 13.4 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 18.7 21.0 13.6 96.0 62.8 52.1 9.0 15.0 22.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 22.3 26.4 21.8 140.3 75.3 64.2 7.7 13.3 20.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 30.6 44.0 33.9 178.0 82.9 72.5 8.8 16.2 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.7 23.9 21.5 124.0 71.3 59.3 6.3 12.2 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 19.0 33.8 29.6 214.4 87.7 80.2 3.7 7.9 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.7 21.3 19.3 109.7 66.9 55.6 5.7 11.8 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 24.0 38.9 33.1 215.3 87.9 77.6 6.0 11.1 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 35.6 59.6 44.9 213.9 90.1 81.4 11.1 18.7 28.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 21.1 25.6 15.4 104.5 65.5 53.9 11.9 18.3 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------