***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 25.6 26.6 26.9 -0.7 41.5 43.4 25.9 27.3 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 25.1 26.1 26.7 -0.9 39.7 42.3 25.5 26.9 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 25.4 26.5 27.2 -0.5 43.4 44.8 25.6 27.1 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 20.7 19.5 24.8 -0.5 42.8 44.6 18.6 20.1 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 28.1 26.4 24.9 -0.9 38.7 41.5 25.9 27.5 29.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 24.1 24.7 22.3 -1.0 35.6 39.0 24.5 26.1 27.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 25.0 26.0 26.7 -0.8 40.3 42.9 25.3 26.8 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.2 14.6 23.3 -0.9 39.1 41.6 14.1 15.6 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 27.7 26.0 25.0 -0.8 39.4 41.9 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 27.5 26.0 23.8 -0.7 40.8 42.9 25.2 26.8 28.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 27.7 25.8 24.6 -1.1 36.2 39.4 25.5 27.1 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 24.5 25.0 24.5 -1.2 35.2 38.6 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 25.3 25.6 23.3 -1.4 31.8 36.2 25.7 27.3 28.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 25.2 26.4 24.9 -0.6 42.6 44.2 25.5 27.0 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 28.7 27.3 25.8 -0.9 38.5 41.0 26.8 28.2 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 26.0 26.4 24.1 -1.2 34.4 38.3 26.3 27.9 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 24.7 25.7 26.7 -0.6 41.9 44.2 24.9 26.4 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 26.8 25.5 23.3 -0.5 43.2 44.7 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 24.7 25.8 26.9 -0.8 40.7 42.9 25.1 26.5 27.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 22.6 21.2 20.7 -0.6 41.7 43.9 20.3 22.0 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 27.8 26.5 26.2 -0.6 42.4 44.1 25.6 27.1 28.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 25.0 26.2 26.6 -0.6 42.6 44.6 25.3 26.9 28.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 25.0 26.2 27.0 -0.7 41.9 43.7 25.4 26.9 28.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 27.2 26.0 25.0 -0.5 43.9 45.1 25.0 26.6 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 25.5 26.5 25.0 -0.7 41.0 43.1 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 24.7 25.0 23.8 -1.5 30.9 35.6 25.2 26.8 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 25.1 26.0 25.9 -0.7 41.0 43.1 25.3 26.8 28.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 28.8 27.4 25.1 -0.7 40.0 42.4 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.2 20.8 22.3 -0.6 42.5 44.3 19.8 21.5 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 25.1 26.0 26.8 -0.8 40.4 42.7 25.4 26.9 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------