***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 6.6 16.6 10.5 93.5 64.0 44.4 6.5 11.3 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.5 16.8 9.0 86.6 61.9 44.8 7.7 12.4 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 6.0 15.2 9.8 87.2 62.2 43.8 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.3 14.3 9.8 99.2 66.3 42.2 4.2 8.4 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.5 10.5 8.9 87.6 62.8 40.3 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 2.8 8.1 8.7 71.0 56.1 36.1 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 5.2 12.5 9.6 90.5 63.0 44.3 5.2 8.8 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 8.6 19.5 7.6 70.1 54.1 37.7 9.2 17.2 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 4.1 10.9 9.1 79.4 60.3 38.9 4.4 8.0 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 6.0 14.5 9.3 74.9 57.0 39.2 6.3 11.7 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.6 11.0 7.8 86.9 61.8 40.6 3.7 7.4 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 5.1 11.9 6.5 72.9 56.4 38.1 5.3 9.7 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.8 6.9 7.5 74.3 58.2 38.7 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 7.5 18.3 11.4 79.6 59.7 43.1 7.4 13.6 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.1 10.6 7.0 88.3 62.9 40.5 2.4 5.9 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.4 9.1 8.5 90.7 63.3 40.1 2.4 5.4 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 6.0 16.6 9.0 91.8 63.0 44.7 5.6 10.8 18.3 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 8.8 17.9 10.7 76.0 57.6 41.6 9.3 14.9 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.5 14.1 8.9 83.6 60.7 44.3 5.7 10.2 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 6.5 12.2 9.4 66.8 51.2 39.6 6.4 11.7 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 6.0 17.4 9.7 87.8 63.2 41.0 6.2 11.7 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 8.2 18.4 8.7 88.7 61.5 45.5 8.1 13.6 20.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 6.9 14.7 8.5 75.8 58.3 43.0 6.6 11.6 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 8.5 20.6 10.2 77.0 59.1 41.6 9.1 15.8 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 5.4 15.1 11.4 99.5 66.4 46.2 5.6 9.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.0 7.3 4.8 68.0 56.0 36.3 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 7.4 19.2 11.5 95.1 64.6 45.8 7.5 12.8 19.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.9 10.7 8.9 98.9 66.3 40.4 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.9 21.5 11.0 75.8 56.1 42.3 9.8 18.0 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.7 17.4 9.5 87.8 62.4 45.4 7.5 12.5 19.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------