***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 15.3 17.0 18.5 3.7 95.4 92.5 13.1 13.9 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 15.6 17.3 18.1 3.4 92.7 89.9 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 17.1 19.3 18.6 3.7 95.6 93.0 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 12.5 14.5 15.4 3.2 93.8 91.2 9.5 10.6 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 13.5 15.2 16.5 3.6 96.7 94.5 11.5 12.2 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 12.5 14.2 13.0 3.1 97.0 95.5 10.5 11.2 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 15.4 16.8 18.1 3.3 92.1 89.0 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 7.4 8.6 12.4 2.4 91.2 89.8 5.0 5.9 6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 14.5 16.2 16.6 3.6 97.0 95.4 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 14.3 15.5 13.9 2.8 93.0 91.5 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 14.1 15.6 15.4 3.1 95.6 94.1 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 12.4 13.5 13.7 2.7 92.9 91.3 10.5 11.2 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 13.9 15.9 14.3 3.1 97.4 96.3 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 15.4 17.3 16.0 3.4 96.1 94.5 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 15.3 17.0 17.0 3.2 96.6 94.2 13.3 14.1 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 14.6 16.4 14.9 3.1 96.2 94.5 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 15.7 17.1 17.9 3.3 92.2 89.2 13.4 14.2 15.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 13.4 14.8 13.3 2.8 93.7 92.1 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 15.2 16.8 18.4 3.7 94.4 92.0 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 8.8 9.8 11.0 2.5 92.1 90.4 7.0 7.6 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 14.5 16.4 17.7 3.6 96.6 94.5 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 14.9 16.4 18.3 3.7 94.5 92.1 12.6 13.5 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 15.0 17.1 18.6 4.1 96.7 94.8 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 14.8 16.7 16.0 3.4 96.0 94.3 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 14.9 16.4 17.3 3.5 94.3 91.8 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 13.2 15.2 13.5 3.4 97.9 96.5 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 15.2 17.2 17.9 3.6 94.8 91.9 12.7 13.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 13.4 14.9 15.8 3.2 95.6 93.2 11.6 12.3 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 11.8 13.1 12.3 2.6 92.0 90.7 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 15.7 17.2 18.4 3.5 93.2 90.4 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------