***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 75.6 84.5 61.2 113.8 66.4 56.5 52.3 67.7 84.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 59.1 79.9 56.9 100.6 57.4 49.1 60.8 73.6 87.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 95.3 110.7 65.1 118.3 69.0 58.3 66.7 85.5 106.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 101.7 117.6 81.6 134.4 77.6 63.5 52.5 72.4 95.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 91.5 98.7 77.7 128.0 74.6 60.4 48.3 65.5 85.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 78.4 84.9 99.5 130.4 75.3 65.2 43.7 57.6 73.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 49.2 68.5 55.3 96.5 54.1 46.6 50.1 64.5 80.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 122.2 131.4 91.7 135.0 77.4 67.9 75.3 93.9 113.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 87.1 99.2 82.0 132.3 76.8 63.4 45.7 62.6 81.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 105.2 114.2 96.1 131.0 76.2 65.1 60.7 78.4 98.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 82.5 87.8 71.9 131.0 75.3 63.5 44.3 59.2 75.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 77.8 89.1 73.5 141.6 79.3 69.0 35.8 50.8 68.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 72.6 74.5 76.1 125.7 72.7 62.5 40.0 52.7 67.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 102.0 115.8 84.1 118.1 69.0 58.4 76.7 93.9 111.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 64.4 75.9 72.5 135.0 76.8 63.5 27.8 42.2 59.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 64.4 69.1 74.2 130.0 74.7 62.9 34.7 46.5 59.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 45.6 64.3 51.5 88.8 48.7 43.0 47.0 65.7 87.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 98.5 107.8 107.8 129.4 76.0 65.2 58.4 75.0 93.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 63.7 92.9 59.3 106.1 61.3 52.2 65.1 81.1 98.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 89.2 94.3 106.5 126.5 74.3 65.5 53.1 67.7 83.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 86.8 95.8 70.1 130.7 75.7 62.6 51.9 66.9 83.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 48.5 67.2 52.8 90.8 49.8 44.5 50.8 67.2 85.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 79.1 87.2 64.7 114.8 66.8 56.4 58.6 72.3 86.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 118.3 125.6 89.8 125.4 73.6 62.3 77.6 95.4 114.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 75.9 93.2 78.6 121.1 71.1 59.1 49.7 66.8 85.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 73.3 81.0 68.9 136.9 77.1 67.9 36.3 50.2 66.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 79.6 89.8 72.2 113.8 66.5 56.7 54.5 70.9 89.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 61.1 68.6 77.1 133.5 76.4 62.7 34.7 45.8 58.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 120.4 127.0 105.8 126.0 74.0 64.0 79.4 97.0 115.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 63.3 87.5 58.9 105.0 60.5 51.7 64.5 78.4 92.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------