***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 6.5 22.8 12.1 114.5 69.2 47.6 6.0 12.0 20.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 6.6 23.9 13.8 115.3 69.6 50.6 6.1 12.3 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 7.8 28.8 13.1 121.8 71.0 49.7 7.8 14.9 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.7 22.1 12.3 104.0 66.4 46.2 5.7 12.2 21.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.9 22.5 12.3 99.9 65.7 47.9 5.8 12.6 22.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.7 21.0 18.4 107.5 67.6 48.9 5.9 11.6 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 8.4 24.9 13.6 112.4 68.7 50.9 7.6 14.2 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 10.1 30.2 15.8 110.8 68.2 52.8 9.0 17.1 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 8.3 24.4 13.6 109.6 68.6 50.5 8.3 14.4 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.9 29.8 16.7 109.1 68.1 52.5 8.8 16.7 27.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.3 18.3 10.5 91.1 62.7 46.4 5.6 11.7 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.7 15.7 11.3 107.9 67.4 49.2 4.4 8.8 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.7 18.7 13.4 107.4 67.7 47.5 4.9 10.1 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 11.7 38.0 18.1 130.2 73.1 55.1 11.1 19.5 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.4 14.3 10.3 109.1 68.3 46.0 2.8 6.7 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.0 15.8 11.8 98.5 65.4 46.0 4.9 9.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.7 19.3 14.2 123.1 71.3 51.6 5.4 10.0 16.5 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.7 25.3 21.1 120.8 70.8 55.0 6.8 13.1 21.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 7.4 27.8 13.7 119.7 70.7 51.0 6.6 13.6 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.9 21.9 20.9 110.9 67.9 53.7 7.4 13.1 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 6.6 25.2 12.1 124.1 72.0 49.7 6.7 12.5 20.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.5 22.0 13.9 124.7 71.7 53.2 5.0 10.4 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 6.9 25.5 14.0 126.9 72.5 51.9 6.7 12.5 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 12.9 41.2 18.1 129.4 73.0 54.9 12.3 21.6 33.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 7.5 25.8 15.4 119.8 70.6 49.7 7.2 13.4 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.6 18.1 10.7 107.1 67.5 48.2 5.1 10.0 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 8.6 27.8 15.0 116.2 69.6 49.2 8.6 15.6 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.3 13.9 11.3 99.0 65.5 44.5 4.0 8.1 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 24.1 33.0 21.0 117.0 69.7 54.6 9.3 17.8 29.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 6.7 21.4 13.3 111.1 68.5 49.7 6.2 11.8 19.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------