***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.8 17.5 0.3 56.4 52.8 13.8 14.5 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 14.3 14.5 17.7 0.4 58.1 54.7 13.0 14.0 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 14.7 15.9 17.3 0.1 53.0 50.4 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.4 15.4 0.3 57.0 53.4 9.9 10.9 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.0 15.0 0.3 56.5 52.6 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.1 13.1 0.3 57.6 54.5 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 14.4 14.7 17.7 0.5 59.5 55.7 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.0 13.1 0.3 58.2 54.4 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 13.0 14.1 15.3 0.2 55.2 51.5 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.0 13.7 0.2 54.8 51.8 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.2 14.6 0.4 58.7 54.6 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.2 14.2 0.5 62.1 57.1 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 12.2 13.7 13.7 0.5 62.0 57.1 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.5 15.2 0.1 52.3 50.0 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.5 16.1 0.4 58.4 55.0 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.5 14.7 14.4 0.5 61.0 56.2 13.1 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.9 17.2 0.3 56.7 53.8 13.6 14.5 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.6 13.0 0.2 54.5 51.5 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.4 17.5 0.3 56.1 53.2 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.4 11.1 0.2 55.2 52.4 7.3 8.2 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 14.2 14.0 16.6 0.2 54.5 51.3 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.0 17.1 0.2 54.8 52.3 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.7 17.0 0.2 53.8 51.2 12.7 13.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 12.9 14.1 15.1 0.1 52.7 50.1 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.9 15.9 0.2 55.8 52.3 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.3 13.9 0.6 64.3 58.8 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.9 16.7 0.4 57.8 53.7 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.3 15.8 0.4 60.0 55.7 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.0 12.3 0.2 55.0 52.1 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.6 17.8 0.4 57.5 54.1 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------