***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.1 15.4 -0.6 37.6 42.1 13.8 14.7 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 14.7 13.3 15.1 -0.8 35.5 40.2 13.2 14.3 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.3 15.2 15.5 -0.6 38.6 42.6 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.6 10.4 13.0 -0.4 40.8 45.9 9.8 11.1 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.3 13.4 -0.5 38.8 43.9 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.0 10.7 -0.6 36.2 41.1 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 14.8 13.7 15.1 -0.7 36.3 40.6 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.8 5.9 10.9 -0.3 42.2 46.1 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.4 13.6 -0.4 41.2 45.9 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.9 13.2 11.9 -0.3 42.9 47.1 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 13.7 13.0 13.0 -0.4 40.3 44.8 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.1 11.8 -0.4 39.4 43.5 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.4 11.5 -0.6 34.4 40.1 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.7 14.3 13.7 -0.1 47.8 50.6 13.5 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.1 14.5 -0.5 38.8 44.3 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.2 12.3 -0.6 36.7 42.2 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.0 15.0 -0.6 37.8 42.1 13.7 14.7 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.1 11.3 -0.2 44.7 48.5 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 14.7 13.6 15.2 -0.7 36.4 41.0 13.4 14.4 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.3 7.8 9.2 -0.2 44.8 48.7 7.2 8.0 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.4 14.8 -0.4 40.6 45.0 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 14.2 13.3 15.1 -0.6 38.5 42.5 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 14.3 13.4 15.3 -0.5 39.6 43.5 13.0 14.0 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 14.2 13.6 13.5 -0.2 45.0 48.3 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.3 13.3 14.1 -0.7 36.3 41.9 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.8 11.8 10.8 -0.6 34.6 39.4 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 14.5 13.3 14.7 -0.7 35.9 41.0 13.1 14.1 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 13.1 12.4 13.5 -0.4 40.8 45.6 12.1 12.8 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 11.0 10.3 10.6 -0.2 45.5 49.3 9.4 10.6 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 15.1 13.8 15.3 -0.7 36.0 40.4 13.6 14.7 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------