***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 75.9 87.4 75.0 112.4 65.4 58.4 52.1 69.0 88.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 78.1 78.4 58.9 101.0 57.9 51.0 57.1 71.3 86.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 94.4 101.2 67.4 105.9 61.4 54.5 66.6 86.3 107.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 85.5 91.6 66.0 104.3 60.9 55.2 59.5 78.2 98.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 75.0 81.5 67.9 106.2 61.9 56.2 53.6 69.3 86.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 69.4 64.6 69.4 95.7 52.7 49.6 47.4 62.0 78.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 73.6 76.2 61.5 104.1 60.1 53.4 47.7 64.4 83.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 99.4 98.0 72.2 97.7 54.9 51.3 76.2 92.7 110.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 72.8 78.5 71.9 106.3 61.9 55.1 52.5 67.1 82.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 85.8 87.1 77.7 100.7 57.4 52.4 61.1 78.8 98.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 66.8 67.6 64.0 99.7 57.2 52.6 48.0 61.5 76.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 57.4 55.4 63.3 98.2 55.6 51.5 35.6 50.1 67.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 40.9 59.5 66.8 97.1 54.8 51.3 41.0 55.1 71.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 104.1 104.9 79.6 101.0 57.5 53.1 75.1 95.0 117.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 54.6 60.6 56.6 106.3 62.3 55.3 32.3 47.2 65.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 54.9 55.4 64.5 101.1 58.0 53.3 36.0 48.6 63.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 76.3 73.3 56.3 98.1 55.4 50.3 47.6 66.5 88.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 81.3 83.1 84.9 101.1 57.5 52.9 59.2 75.4 92.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 88.1 87.1 59.0 100.0 57.0 50.1 62.0 79.3 98.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 74.8 71.8 79.1 97.3 53.7 50.8 53.5 68.4 84.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 70.9 79.8 72.7 109.9 64.0 56.8 49.8 65.2 82.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 74.4 70.2 56.9 97.6 54.6 49.2 46.3 64.7 85.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 78.7 76.2 60.0 97.9 55.3 49.8 58.4 71.8 85.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 100.7 103.1 76.5 102.7 58.8 52.8 73.0 92.3 113.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 73.7 88.1 83.6 114.2 66.5 60.3 49.4 67.2 87.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 59.0 43.8 49.2 81.6 42.5 41.7 35.4 50.6 68.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 78.0 92.1 84.3 115.5 67.2 60.2 52.9 70.5 90.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 55.2 58.4 62.4 104.6 61.1 55.0 39.8 50.6 62.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 102.2 102.0 84.2 99.6 55.9 52.3 77.9 95.5 114.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 82.5 84.0 62.2 103.5 59.8 52.8 58.5 73.9 91.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------