***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 5.7 14.3 12.1 88.5 60.4 43.2 5.3 10.3 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.6 18.0 11.9 111.2 67.9 49.2 5.0 10.0 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 6.5 18.0 12.3 98.4 63.2 44.4 6.5 12.0 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.2 14.3 12.7 97.5 64.2 45.6 3.7 8.3 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.3 19.6 13.1 102.7 65.6 45.6 4.4 10.2 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.8 11.9 13.8 100.3 63.7 46.0 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 14.1 19.5 11.7 113.2 68.7 49.3 4.5 9.7 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.0 15.0 12.6 85.6 58.4 44.8 4.8 10.8 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.8 14.4 14.9 111.1 67.9 46.7 3.4 7.3 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.7 16.3 15.2 95.4 61.9 45.7 4.8 10.4 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.3 12.4 10.8 86.7 60.3 43.8 3.6 8.2 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.8 10.1 10.5 86.4 59.8 44.8 3.2 6.9 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.4 11.1 12.2 99.1 64.3 46.5 3.4 6.9 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 7.0 19.5 15.2 88.4 60.7 46.9 6.4 13.4 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.6 10.2 10.5 106.3 67.0 43.6 2.6 5.5 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.8 11.1 11.6 92.9 62.2 44.8 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.7 19.6 11.9 111.4 68.2 50.1 5.1 10.4 18.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.6 13.8 17.9 97.8 62.5 47.5 3.4 8.1 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 5.7 17.8 11.9 103.9 65.3 47.7 5.3 10.6 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 12.3 11.9 15.1 87.7 58.3 46.4 5.0 9.1 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.2 15.9 14.0 106.2 66.5 44.5 3.4 8.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.1 16.7 12.4 107.6 66.4 48.1 4.7 9.4 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 6.9 17.3 11.5 89.7 60.8 45.7 6.9 12.5 20.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.2 21.5 15.4 101.1 64.4 47.4 6.6 13.0 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.4 14.1 14.1 96.1 63.6 46.1 5.0 9.3 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.7 10.5 8.5 88.7 60.6 42.4 3.5 7.2 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 6.1 16.3 13.6 91.5 61.7 44.7 5.5 11.0 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.5 7.7 12.1 101.3 65.3 44.3 2.6 4.9 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.6 20.6 17.5 95.5 61.4 47.8 7.4 14.3 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 6.5 18.5 11.7 107.8 66.9 48.4 6.1 11.1 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------