***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 26.5 20.7 124.8 71.1 58.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 12.6 23.3 21.0 139.7 75.4 61.4 4.2 9.1 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 14.9 22.0 21.0 128.2 71.9 59.8 7.0 12.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 16.7 20.7 20.2 110.3 65.5 58.3 8.9 14.2 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.9 15.8 21.5 118.1 68.4 59.5 5.8 9.7 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 9.1 15.4 18.6 86.7 55.3 47.7 9.1 13.7 19.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 11.1 20.2 21.0 136.1 74.5 63.1 3.9 8.3 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 12.4 23.4 18.8 89.7 55.2 44.7 12.7 20.7 30.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.4 16.3 22.6 118.5 68.6 57.9 5.9 9.9 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.4 17.3 21.5 101.4 60.7 50.1 8.1 13.2 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.1 14.1 17.7 102.2 61.6 50.8 5.9 10.2 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.9 13.4 16.3 91.6 56.9 45.8 6.8 11.3 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 7.2 14.2 18.9 96.3 59.3 50.9 7.0 11.3 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 22.2 25.0 21.0 100.3 61.9 51.7 9.5 17.3 28.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 12.1 16.1 18.8 113.3 67.0 58.3 5.0 9.3 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.7 17.2 93.0 57.8 49.3 7.1 11.3 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 18.5 24.8 21.4 151.8 78.2 65.6 4.3 9.0 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 9.5 21.4 24.2 103.9 62.3 52.3 9.2 15.5 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.9 22.7 20.9 134.8 74.0 59.5 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.3 19.3 23.8 101.4 60.9 51.2 9.2 14.8 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.6 16.3 20.6 118.7 68.8 56.4 6.7 10.5 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 23.4 30.7 22.0 149.9 77.7 64.0 5.0 10.8 19.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.0 18.6 20.9 123.5 70.5 57.4 5.3 10.0 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 19.5 21.8 22.1 104.5 63.0 52.3 9.1 15.4 23.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.8 17.3 22.8 117.5 68.2 58.6 5.8 10.3 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.5 13.6 18.0 100.6 62.1 51.2 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 10.9 16.6 23.6 127.1 71.7 61.0 4.7 8.7 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.6 15.4 18.0 104.5 63.1 55.2 7.4 11.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.2 24.5 24.1 100.9 61.2 51.5 11.6 18.7 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 12.7 21.7 21.4 136.9 74.7 62.0 5.4 10.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------