***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 14.3 16.5 -0.4 41.5 44.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 13.1 13.8 16.5 -0.5 40.3 43.8 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 14.8 15.6 16.5 -0.3 43.1 45.6 15.0 15.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 9.9 10.5 14.6 -0.4 39.6 43.7 10.1 11.2 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 11.8 12.4 14.4 -0.4 40.5 44.1 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 10.8 11.6 12.7 -0.1 46.4 47.9 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 13.4 13.9 16.4 -0.5 38.9 43.0 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.6 6.3 12.5 -0.3 42.7 45.7 5.7 6.8 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 13.1 13.6 14.7 -0.4 40.9 44.1 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 12.9 13.6 13.2 -0.3 43.1 45.8 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 13.0 13.6 14.0 -0.2 44.4 47.0 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.4 13.4 -0.3 43.2 46.4 11.0 11.7 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 12.3 12.9 13.0 -0.3 43.3 47.0 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 13.6 14.2 14.7 -0.4 41.8 45.5 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 14.2 14.9 15.5 -0.3 43.9 46.3 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 13.1 13.8 13.7 -0.2 44.0 47.1 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 13.8 14.4 16.2 -0.5 40.3 43.9 14.0 14.9 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 11.4 12.1 12.4 -0.3 43.0 45.7 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 13.4 14.0 16.5 -0.3 42.4 45.3 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.3 7.8 10.6 -0.4 40.3 43.9 7.4 8.2 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 12.8 13.5 15.7 -0.4 41.1 44.2 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.6 16.1 -0.4 41.9 45.2 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 12.7 13.4 16.3 -0.3 44.0 46.6 12.9 13.6 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 12.9 13.7 14.5 -0.3 43.8 46.3 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 12.6 13.1 14.9 -0.5 38.3 42.7 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 11.9 12.4 13.0 -0.4 41.0 45.0 12.0 12.7 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 12.5 13.1 15.7 -0.4 39.9 43.8 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 12.1 12.7 15.0 -0.3 42.3 45.4 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.6 10.4 11.7 -0.3 42.1 45.1 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 13.4 14.0 16.6 -0.4 40.6 43.9 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------