***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 6.4 18.4 13.8 84.6 58.6 43.0 6.5 13.5 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 8.3 20.5 13.6 93.8 61.7 46.7 7.9 14.5 23.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 9.6 22.2 14.3 85.1 58.4 43.5 9.8 17.3 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 7.8 15.1 12.2 68.7 49.7 37.8 8.0 15.3 25.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 7.6 13.9 11.7 69.4 51.0 37.4 7.9 13.6 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 8.6 13.3 14.7 68.7 46.3 37.8 8.6 14.8 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 7.3 17.2 13.8 96.7 62.8 46.2 7.3 12.4 18.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 9.8 17.4 14.1 70.2 49.4 38.8 10.8 17.7 26.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 7.6 14.7 12.3 70.6 51.5 37.6 7.7 14.0 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 7.5 14.2 14.2 69.5 49.8 38.3 7.8 14.4 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 7.2 12.5 10.4 67.6 49.8 37.6 7.4 12.7 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 4.6 8.4 10.5 62.2 45.7 34.5 5.0 9.8 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 4.6 7.1 10.2 53.8 40.2 30.7 5.1 10.2 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.9 18.0 18.1 85.4 57.1 43.5 8.3 14.7 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 4.5 10.0 10.0 69.1 52.3 39.0 3.9 9.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 4.5 7.3 10.3 59.9 44.3 33.9 4.7 8.9 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 6.6 17.4 13.3 93.3 61.9 46.6 6.4 12.1 19.7 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 8.6 15.0 16.5 70.9 49.4 38.4 9.4 15.3 22.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 9.1 22.0 14.0 93.2 61.8 47.1 8.7 15.7 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 7.3 13.5 16.5 73.0 49.0 39.5 7.9 13.9 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 7.8 15.2 12.9 75.7 54.6 40.3 7.8 13.4 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 9.2 20.3 14.1 92.5 61.7 48.3 9.0 15.0 22.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 7.9 19.2 15.2 96.8 63.5 47.9 7.7 13.3 20.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 8.5 18.6 16.3 81.2 54.6 41.4 8.8 16.2 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 6.4 14.3 14.2 78.4 55.1 41.0 6.3 12.2 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 2.9 5.1 8.3 51.0 39.7 29.5 3.7 7.9 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 5.8 15.4 14.5 82.9 57.4 42.4 5.7 11.8 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 5.7 10.8 11.3 66.4 49.1 37.4 6.0 11.1 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 10.6 18.7 17.4 74.1 50.0 39.6 11.1 18.7 28.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 11.7 23.3 13.9 92.6 61.2 45.9 11.9 18.3 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------