***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 24.7 24.8 23.8 0.5 56.5 56.1 22.8 24.3 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 24.9 25.3 24.1 0.8 60.7 60.0 23.4 24.6 25.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 25.0 25.1 23.9 0.6 57.6 57.0 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 17.4 17.2 20.5 0.2 52.6 52.4 15.5 17.0 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 25.0 24.7 21.7 0.2 52.9 52.6 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 23.3 22.6 19.0 -0.2 47.4 47.5 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 24.4 25.0 24.2 1.0 62.7 61.8 22.8 24.1 25.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.8 19.6 0.5 56.7 55.7 10.7 12.2 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 24.4 24.4 22.8 0.5 56.7 56.0 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 24.2 24.4 20.8 0.7 58.7 57.4 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 24.7 24.4 22.0 0.3 53.4 53.0 22.7 24.1 25.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 23.4 23.1 20.4 0.2 52.6 52.2 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 24.6 24.0 21.0 -0.1 49.2 49.2 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 25.7 25.4 22.9 1.1 63.5 62.2 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 25.0 24.7 23.2 0.0 50.3 50.3 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 25.2 24.6 21.2 0.0 49.9 49.9 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 25.2 25.1 24.0 1.2 64.7 63.7 22.6 23.9 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 23.8 24.3 20.2 0.9 62.1 60.5 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 24.5 24.8 24.0 0.8 60.0 59.3 22.9 24.1 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 19.0 19.2 17.8 0.7 58.4 57.2 16.9 18.4 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 24.6 24.6 23.7 0.4 55.6 55.1 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 24.9 25.4 23.8 0.9 62.0 61.2 23.2 24.5 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 24.9 25.4 24.0 1.0 62.2 61.2 23.2 24.5 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 24.2 24.8 22.7 1.0 62.1 60.8 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 24.7 24.5 22.5 0.3 53.6 53.3 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 23.8 23.1 19.2 -0.3 46.2 46.7 22.0 23.4 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 24.4 24.4 23.2 0.4 55.5 55.1 22.7 24.0 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 25.0 24.7 21.6 0.1 51.0 50.9 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.9 19.4 19.5 0.9 61.7 60.1 16.9 18.4 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 24.8 25.1 24.1 0.7 59.4 58.8 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------